Texas may be moving into a rapid decline from economic miracle to regional recession as a result of plummeting oil prices, according to JPMorgan Chief Economist Michael Feroli.

“The consequences could be far-reaching—job losses and a sharp pullback in home prices in big Texas cities among them,” writes Hiltzik, a Pulitzer-winning columnist with the LA Times. While no oil-producing state will be immune, “the weight of the oil industry in the Texas economy resembles that of mid-1986, when a similar oil price collapse created a major recession in that state—while the rest of the country reaped the economic benefit of lower spending at the pump.”

Today, “the same pattern is bulking large on the horizon.” Hiltzik says a sharp decline in the state economy could imperil Gov. Rick Perry’s hopes of running for U.S. president in 2016, and “may expose a lot of economic wreckage to public view. One consequence of the state’s low-tax, low-service credo is that infrastructure spending has been starved, just at the moment when it’s most needed.”