This article was submitted as part of the Global Voices Climate Justice fellowship, which pairs journalists from Sinophone and Global Majority countries to investigate the effects of Chinese development projects abroad. Find more stories here.

China has emerged as the key partner for Tajikistan’s green transportation transition and is quickly becoming the country’s main supplier of electric vehicles (EVs). With increased commitments to helping produce EVs locally, it could also boost the local car manufacturing industry and help improve air quality in polluted areas. 

Of the five Central Asian states, Tajikistan has taken the most dramatic measures to accelerate its transition to EVs, write Brian Hioe and Nurbek Bekmurzaev for Global Voices. It has made it mandatory for all taxi companies in the capital, Dushanbe, to switch to EVs, and set a target of 20–30% of all cars to be electric by 2030. These measures are accompanied by tax and customs duty breaks for EVs until 2032. 

Officials hope to leverage this momentum and become a leader in the global green transition. Tajikistan is aiming to transform into a “green country” by 2037, President Emomali Rahmon, said during a June 2024 speech at an international conference. This urgency stems from Tajikistan’s air pollution issues, where internal combustion engine cars are blamed for being one of the primary pollution drivers. 

Tajikistan’s EV transition perfectly aligns with China’s rise as the global leader in the manufacturing and export of EVs and the growing bilateral cooperation between the two countries. The budding EV cooperation, however, puts Tajikistan on a trajectory to increase its dependence on China even further. This worries some observers who note that China has already used its significant economic footprint to encroach upon Tajikistan’s political autonomy on several occasions. 

Air Pollution and the EV Transition 

For the last several years, Tajikistan has remained on the list of countries with the highest levels of air pollution in the world. In 2023, the country was ranked fourth on IQAir’s list of most polluted countries. In 2024, it was ranked sixth on the same list. The problem is acute in Dushanbe as well, where, between 1998 and 2021, the annual PM2.5 concentrations increased from 17.8 micrograms per cubic metre (μg/m3) to 32.7 μg/m3. [Editor’s note: For comparison, the PM2.5 concentration in Ottawa was 6.6 μg/m3 on Oct. 6, 2025.]

The most direct impact of air pollution falls on the shoulders of regular people, whose health deteriorates over time. In Tajikistan, the air pollution-induced mortality rate stands at 78 deaths per 100,000 people per year, the second worst in Central Asia after Uzbekistan. This adds up to more than 4,800 premature deaths annually due to air pollution. The Statistics Agency reports that about 28% of all diseases are related to the respiratory system, further highlighting the scale of air pollution’s impact. 

To improve the situation, Tajikistan has sought to clean up it’s roadways and transition to EVs, especially in Dushanbe, where car pollution is heightened, according to the authorities. Thus, in June 2024, the mayor’s office issued a decree ordering the 12 taxi companies in Dushanbe to switch all 4,350 cars to electric by September 1, 2025. In addition, the mayor’s office plans to switch to electric buses by 2028. 

This was carried out in line with the Program for the Development of Electric Transport for 2023–2028. It set several ambitious goals, including the local production of EVs and their components, construction of infrastructure for power supply and maintenance, development of battery recycling technology, and the provision of benefits to EV drivers. In 2022, the authorities also exempted EVs from all taxes and import customs duties for the next 10 years. 

These measures helped increase EV uptake. In 2022, the Ministry of Transport reported that out of some 445,000 passenger cars, only 120 units were EVs, or 0.03%. Fast forward to 2025, and the number of electric transport, the absolute majority of which are passenger EVs, reached 34,354 units and made up around 5% of all vehicles in the country.     

An All-Encompassing Partner 

As is often the case in Tajikistan, when it comes to relying on partners to address its domestic challenges, the country turned to China, whose role in Tajikistan’s economy is hard to overestimate. It is simultaneously the country’s biggest investor and lender, as well as the second-largest trade partner after Russia. Between 2007 and 2023, Chinese investments totaled US$3.845 billion, according to Tajikistan’s State Committee for Investments and State Property Management. The bilateral cooperation covers a wide range of fields, including energy, transport, mining, agriculture, construction, and more. 

Tajikistan’s EV scene is dominated by China, whose exports constituted close to 83% of EV imports into Tajikistan in the first half of 2024, at a time when imports from Japan and Germany were down by 75% and 90%. According to the Chinese state-run media CGTN, Chinese EVs constitute more than 90% of Tajikistan’s EV imports. According to forecasts, sanctions against Russia and U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods may further increase this share. 

In 2024, Dushanbe’s mayor’s office launched a fleet of electric microbuses with plans to increase their number in the future. The CGTN news reportage hailed the project for providing drivers with modern and efficient vehicles that were good for the environment and reduced Tajikistan’s dependence on fuel imports. 

When it comes to EVs in the country, it is relatively easier to count the non-Chinese actors compared to various Chinese projects. The only non-Chinese EV actor in the country is a joint Turkish-Tajik bus factory that produced its first 30 electric buses in May of 2025. 

According to experts on China and Central Asia relations, Temur Umarov and Roman Vakulchuk, Chinese companies used diplomacy and lobbying to expand into the Tajik market instead of using traditional market-oriented expansion models. In their article on the Chinese takeover of the car market in Central Asia, they discuss how, in 2023, the two sides agreed to establish a factory to manufacture 1,500 EVs locally, and the import of Chinese EVs increased dramatically afterwards. 

‘Green Silk Road’ or Growing Dependency 

Chinese state-run media frames China’s EV push in Central Asia as part of broader efforts aimed at establishing a “Green Silk Road.” That is, EVs are situated alongside Chinese development of energy infrastructure in Central Asia, as another ecological initiative that China provides for in Central Asia. 

Chinese EV brands are increasingly seen as high-quality products by local industry experts, while also being affordable and reliable. To this extent, Chinese state-run media touts stories of local entrepreneurs who have benefited from the EV trade and express pride in seeing Chinese brands going global, such as this excerpt from an interview in the state-funded CCTV: “Over the past decade, my country’s annual production and sales of new energy vehicles have leapt from tens of thousands to tens of millions, with products exported to more than 70 countries and regions, accounting for more than 60 percent of the world’s total, becoming a ‘bright business card’ of Made in China” [Translated from original].

As more Dushanbe taxi drivers adopt Chinese EVs, company reps are reporting positive results. For example, in an interview with Chinese state-funded Xinhua, a representative from Tajikistan’s 3333 taxi service noted that “Local drivers are very welcoming of Chinese EVs due to their superior quality.”

Ruslan Sarbozzoda, head of the ECO-City taxi project at Yak Taxi, told Asia Plus that more than half of the imported vehicles have been purchased by Yak Taxi drivers who are saving money on gas and receiving enthusiastic comments from passengers about the comfort and quiet ride.

EVs are also cited positively alongside efforts by China to assist in combating climate change and tackling environmental issues. 

Together with EVs, Tajikistan will gradually adopt Chinese technologies related to the maintenance, charging, and disposal of the vehicles. In this regard, experts warn that such a large share of one actor is not optimal. Umarov and Vakulchuk note that China’s dominance will eventually rise “to the level of managing first the urban infrastructure, and then the transport system of the entire country, leaving no room for competitors.” 

While convenient and efficient, Tajikistan’s growing reliance on China for the EV transition is also concerning from a political autonomy perspective. Previously, China has taken advantage of Tajikistan’s inability to repay debt to secure lucrative mining rights and even claim 1,100 square kilometres of land. Effectively controlling Tajikistan’s EV market will equip China with another tool for political influence.

This article originally appeared on Global Voices and is republished here with permission.