Despite contributing the least to the warming effects of climate change, younger generations are projected to be disproportionately exposed to extreme fire weather.
Under current policies, babies born in 2025 across Europe are projected to experience 3.2 additional years of exposure to extreme fire weather on average compared to those born in 1950, finds a new study published in the journal Environmental Research Letters.
That corresponds to an 84% increase in exposure.
The results reveal that younger generations stand to benefit the most from ambitious efforts to reduce climate pollution, with researchers emphasizing the urgency of meeting the Paris Agreement target of holding average global warming to 1.5°C—a marker which they write would reduce exposure in all regions.
People born in 1950 would be exposed to 0.5 to 4.3 years of extreme fire weather in their lifetimes, the study finds. Under a pathway that reaches 1.5°C in 2100, the lifetime exposure for people born in 2025 would range from 0.6 to six years in Northern Europe, 2.4 to 7.2 years in Western and Central Europe, and 1.5 to 7.7 years in Southern Europe.
In a 2.6°C warming scenario, “corresponding to the median expected end-of-century warming under current policies,” exposure would rise: 0.7 to 7.4 years in Northern Europe, 2.9 to 8.6 years in Western and Central Europe, and 1.6 to 9.5 years in Southern Europe.
On average across Europe, 86% of the difference between generational exposure to fire weather is due to climate, while the remaining 14% reflects longer lifetimes.
If global warming were limited to 1.5°C instead of the 2.6°C expected under current policies, exposure to fire weather for people born in 2025 would decrease by 1.3 years on average.
“Every fraction of warming avoided reduces the burden on young generations across Europe by lowering their lifetime exposure to extreme and dangerous fire weather,” the authors say. “Climate change mitigation should therefore be understood as a preventative policy to protect the health and safety of today’s young generations.”












