A new industry report finds Canada could see $7 billion more invested in electric vehicle charging infrastructure by 2035 if Ottawa adopted a stronger emissions standard for light-duty vehicles, rather than a weaker one.

The policy brief prepared for [pdf] the Canadian Charging Infrastructure Council (CCIC) comes as Ottawa finalizes its tailpipe emissions standard, expected this summer.

Setting the federal standard at 59 grams of carbon dioxide per mile (g CO2/mile) by 2035 would deliver the federal target of 75% market share to zero-emissions vehicles (ZEVs) by 2035, and 90% by 2040, writes CCIC. It would also unlock some $21 billion in charging investment, boosting local economies. Between 50% and 65% of such investment—funded largely by private-sector investors and property owners—would support local skilled trades, suppliers, and utilities.

The CCIC argues that adding charging infrastructure is a nation-building project, with investment spread across communities in every province and territory.

Should the Carney government choose a weaker emissions standard of 115 g CO2/mile by 2032, investment will drop accordingly, says CCIC, as it will mean fewer ZEVs on Canadian roads.

“A rigorous, durable federal emissions standard is precisely the signal that can unlock billions in investment across Canada,” CCIC President and CEO Travis Allan said in a release.

But it is a signal that needs to be delivered now. “Siting, permitting, connecting to the grid, and building a single site can cost hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars, and these projects are financed years ahead of the demand they serve,” Allan added. It will be regulatory certainty that “converts targets into shovels in the ground.”

As of late winter, Ottawa was eyeballing an emissions standard at least 15 g CO2/mile higher than that recommended by the CCIC.

Launching his new auto strategy in February, Prime Minister Mark Carney identified 74 g CO2/mile by 2035 as the target necessary to hit his government’s 75%-by-2035 market milestone.

In a March briefing, the Pembina Institute panned the 74 g/mile target as deeply insufficient. Even a 62 g/mile target would provide “only a reasonable chance” of meeting the target, as “weaker targets reduce the market signal needed to scale EV adoption.”

To confidently reach its target of 75% EV sales by 2035, Ottawa would need to set its emission standard at 40 g/mile, the clean energy think tank said. 

In its own recent analysis of the Carney government’s auto strategy, the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) found that a 74 g CO₂/mile standard “could lead to, at best, a 68% EV sales share in 2035.” The ICCT added that EV uptake could weaken further if compliance credits accrued by automakers over the past five years are factored in.

“Reaching a 75% EV share would require an estimated fleet-level CO2 limit of at least 20% higher stringency, at 59 g/mile in 2035, or more stringent if accounting for accrued credits,” the ICCT said.