With above-normal hurricane activity expected in the United States this season, experts are warning of limited forecasting capacity at a key national weather agency.

“My greatest concern is the lack of people that will be available to actually do the work that needs to be done, whether it’s collecting observations or making a forecast,” John Cortinas, a former assistant administrator for science at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), told CBC News.

Weather forecasting capacity in the U.S. has been weakened after the Donald Trump administration cut 500 jobs from the National Weather Service, an agency within NOAA.

Now, NOAA predicts that unnaturally warm air and ocean temperatures will drive above-average activity during this hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30 and will peak in the second week of September. There is a 50% chance of above-normal activity, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 15% chance of a below-normal season, the agency says.

As of this writing, Hurricane Erin had intensified to a Category 4 storm and grown in size after previously weakening to Category 3. Its outer bands hit Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands on August 16.

Erin is not expected to make landfall in the continental U.S. or in Canada, but it is still expected to bring “heavy wave activity” and dangerous riptides along the eastern seaboard.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center is also watching another storm developing between the Windward Islands and the Dominican Republic.

Hurricane seasons typically produce 14 named storms—seven of which become hurricanes, and three intensifying to major Category 3 storms or higher—but three named storms have already formed this year. That puts the season “ahead of the curve,” even though it marks the slowest start since 2019, says The Weather Network.

The White House now says it will hire to fill 450 positions—a move that one official, speaking anonymously to CNN, claimed was prompted by the Texas floods that killed 130 people. New employees are unlikely to be ready to help during the peak of this year’s hurricane season, writes CBC News.

Veteran broadcast meteorologist John Morales said the agency’s modelling is already worsening with less data collection, including less-frequent releases of weather balloons. He also worries about less frequent deployment of hurricane hunter aircraft, which he relies on for forecasting data.

“It’s really a combustible mix to live in an era in which there is a higher chance that any tropical storm can become a Category 4 or 5 hurricane,” Morales said.

“We’re getting more of the stronger hurricanes happening. Well, that’s one element. Now we’re going to mix it with degraded ability to study, monitor, forecast and warn… I’m very concerned.”

Hurricane specialists had also raised the alarm back in June when the U.S. Department of Defence announced it would terminate data and services from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder—a key hurricane monitoring tool. The decision was reversed in July,

Other concerns arise as the Trump administration increasingly contracts out to private companies to fill NOAA gaps. Brad Colman, a private meteorologist who previously worked at the agency, told Wired that replacing government work with private services puts NOAA in “a vulnerable position.”

Building forecasting systems around privately-owned data gives the company more leverage to demand higher prices. Companies can also require that data sold to NOAA—which the agency had historically strived to keep public—remains private so it can be sold to other buyers.