Ontario could save between $1.8 and $3.5 billion in local grid upgrade costs over the next 20 years by deploying distributed energy resources instead of investing in new distribution infrastructure, finds a new analysis commissioned by Clean Energy Canada.

A report by consulting firm The Brattle Group finds that DERs can help Ontario defer “wires investments” —costly upgrades to physical infrastructure, such as new power lines—by 3.5 to eight years, long enough to generate “deferral benefits” that outweigh the cost of the DERs themselves. “This value can help keep rising electricity costs in check as Ontario meets increasing demand.”

DERs like smart thermostats, two-way electric vehicle chargers, and home batteries are “non-wires solutions” (NWS) that reduce the need for infrastructure by adjusting how and when electricity is used. These technologies can help reduce grid strain by managing electricity consumption, such as by shifting use from times of peak demand to low demand hours, or managing intermittent generation from renewable energy sources like wind and solar.

As electricity consumption grows, DERs could meet about 5% of the province’s peak demand by 2035 and roughly 9% by 2045, with near-term DER growth coming from the up and running Peak Perks program and commercial HVAC demand response opportunities. Managed EV charging is also projected to expand rapidly in the 2030s.

Analyzing real-world data from the Essex Powerlines system in Southwestern Ontario, the group finds that in nearly all scenarios, every dollar spent on non-wires solutions delivers more than $2 in benefits—even more in areas with high distribution upgrade costs, where the case for DERs is strongest. Scaled province-wide, using NWS to defer distribution upgrades by 3.5 to eight years could save $1.8 to $3.5 billion over 20 years, a 20% to 40% reduction in growth-related capital spending.

“As growth-related capex is roughly 27% of total capex, this implies that NWS could reduce total distribution capex needs by 5–11% across Ontario,” write the authors.

“To its credit, the Ontario government, as well as the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) and local distribution companies, already centre energy efficiency and demand management in their planning,” Clean Energy Canada wrote in its newsletter. “But this study outlines that there is even more DER potential on top of what is currently recognized—and a need to move faster.”

Ontario’s Largest Solar Farm Takes Shape

Meanwhile, Ontario’s grid is slated to add 200 megawatts of solar energy after the IESO signed a 20-year contract for a new solar farm in the Garden River First Nation territory, 45 minutes east of Sault Ste. Marie. The Dunns Valley Solar Project, which will be the province’s largest solar farm, is co-owned in a 50% equity partnership between Garden River First Nation and Neoen, a French international renewable energy company, reported CBC News.

The farm will add more than 380,000 megawatt-hours of energy to the province’s grid annually, roughly equivalent to the electricity used by 42,500 Ontario households. According to Northern Ontario Business, Garden River expects to generate $50 million per year in revenue when the project becomes operational in 2030. Construction is set to begin in 2028.