Baseload power plants are not necessary to maintain supply in an energy system dominated by wind and solar power, and only have a place in future systems if they help cut costs, say researchers in Germany.
In a new report, researchers from the German Academy of Science and Engineering (acatech) show that energy systems dominated by wind and solar can deliver low-carbon, reliable electricity using several strategies that don’t include baseload plants. They use solar and wind power combined with energy storage, smarter or more flexible electricity use, and residual power plants—like hydrogen-powered gas turbine plants—that operate only when needed.
The researchers say operating a flexible hydrogen system, one that can help grids respond to changes in electricity consumption and production, is a key to their analysis.
The report challenges the prevailing idea that baseload power stations are essential for a continuous supply of electricity.
“The findings of our discussion paper should directly translate to any energy system worldwide,” said Philipp Stöcker, scientific officer at the Energy Systems of the Future (ESYS) initiative, which includes acatech. “Of course, local conditions apply, changing some nuances, but not the overall setting,” he told The Energy Mix.
Baseload power is the minimum amount of electricity needed to meet demand at any given time. Historically, that need has been met with continuously operating fossil fuel or nuclear power plants, which are supplemented by other energy sources to meet additional demand. Because these plants are costly to build, they must run almost non-stop to be financially viable, the researchers explain.
While baseload power plants have long been seen as essential to a steady electricity supply, the new research questions their role in a future dominated by solar and wind power. The researchers modelled four baseload technology scenarios—nuclear power plants, geothermal energy, gas power plants with carbon dioxide capture, and nuclear fusion power plants—and found that these technologies could only be included in future energy systems if they reduce costs, reports Clean Energy Wire.
The researchers say gas-fired power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS) are the most likely to be implemented at scale in the next 20 years, but add that their adoption would require significant infrastructure development for CCS, as well as the operation of both gas and hydrogen supply systems. Any remaining emissions from gas production and power plant operations would also have to be addressed, adding a cost to offset them. In such a scenario, baseload power plants are unlikely to reduce the cost of energy supply, the researchers say.
Baseload plants could be useful in a supplementary role—for example, to support hydrogen production and reduce the need for hydrogen imports—but only if they are cost-effective and meet safety and climate policy requirements. However, the researchers think it is unlikely baseload plants will continue to be cost-competitive, since they become more expensive per kilowatt-hour in a shift to renewables.
“For baseload power plants to lead to a substantial cost reduction, their costs would have to fall significantly below the level forecast today,” said Karen Pittel, deputy board chair at ESYS. “In fact, we estimate that the risks of cost increases and delays in baseload technologies tend to be even higher than with the further expansion of solar and wind energy.”
The report is expected to be published in English in February 2025 .
