This story includes details on the impacts of climate change that may be difficult for some readers. If you are feeling overwhelmed by this crisis situation here is a list of resources on how to cope with fears and feelings about the scope and pace of the climate crisis.
Climate change is treated as an underlying cause and a cross-cutting theme but not as a stand-alone threat in a sobering new assessment of the short- and medium-term disruption risks Canada faces, released last month by a federal agency that literally has a focus on the future baked into its name.
The report by Policy Horizons Canada looks at 35 risks the country could face over the next decade, assessing each of them for its likelihood and impacts across spans of three to five, six to eight, and nine years or more. Climate change doesn’t show up in the agency’s risk assessment in as many words, but it underlies many of the individual items—like biodiversity loss and system collapse, overwhelmed emergency response systems, scarcity of vital natural resources, mental health in collapse, food scarcity, regions of Canada becoming uninhabitable, and uninsurable infrastructure and property. [This is one of those moments when it’s no pleasure to have to bring you the latest news!—Ed.]
It also includes a couple of climate-adjacent disruptions that could be seen as positive, like healthy environments declared a human right over the next decade or more, or Northern Canada experiencing an economic boom.
The most serious threat, the only one to which Policy Horizons assigns high likelihood and high impact and one of eight situated in the next three to five years, is the prospect that “people cannot tell what is true and what is not”. With the “information ecosystem” flooded with content generated by both humans and artificial intelligence, the report warns that “mis- and disinformation make it almost impossible to know what is fake or real. It is much harder to know what or who to trust.”
Over time, “more powerful generative AI tools, declining trust in traditional knowledge sources, and algorithms designed for emotional engagement rather than factual reporting could increase distrust and social fragmentation. More people may live in separate realities shaped by their personalized media and information ecosystems. These realities could become hotbeds of disinformation, be characterized by incompatible and competing narratives, and form the basis of fault lines in society.”
Biodiversity loss and system collapse show up as both the second-most likely risk, and the one with the second-highest impact.
“Ecosystem collapse and the loss of biodiversity could have cascading impacts on all living things, putting basic human needs such as clean air, water, and food in jeopardy,” the report says. “Health and well-being could severely suffer as malnutrition, disease, and other health problems become more prevalent, leading to increased mortality rates, health care system collapse, and overall reduced quality of life.”
The report adds that “key industries like farming, fishing, and logging could be hard hit, leading to major economic losses and instability. Society could become fragile as many people may be unable to meet their basic needs, let alone higher-order needs like a sense of belonging, self-esteem, and self-actualization. With a heightened sense of insecurity over a lifetime, conflicts could become violent, and people could become more vulnerable to authoritarian and anti-establishment groups or leaders.”
The report connects climate change with specific impacts like biodiversity loss, overwhelmed emergency response, natural resource scarcity, global health risks, uninsurable infrastructure and property, unravelling national unity, and widespread use of (deeply questionable) carbon removal and solar geoengineering technologies. As The Energy Mix went to virtual press Monday evening, a Policy Horizons Canada spokesperson had not yet responded to emailed questions about how the climate emergency itself missed the list of top disruptions facing Canada. We’ll update this story when they reply.
The authors stress that their goal in trying to anticipate and qualify future risks is to get policy-makers thinking more pro-actively about how to respond. “More than ever, the world is filled with uncertainty and unpredictability,” they write. But “being aware of possible future disruptions and prepared for various scenarios can help mitigate risk” and “help Canada’s leaders identify challenges, harness possibilities, and create resilient, sustainable policy in the face of the unexpected.”
