The cost of carbon permits in Europe will increase 61% by June 30 and could double in 2015, according to a year-end analysis by Bloomberg.

The 61% projection was the median of 16 estimates from traders and analysts. The high-end figure came from UBS Group AG.

“The 28-nation European Union is tightening supply in the €40 billion ($50 billion) emissions market after a glut caused prices to collapse to levels that don’t deter the burning of coal,” Bloomberg reports. “Lawmakers want to spur more growth in renewable energy through the first permanent changes to the 10-year-old system.”

The cost of emitting a tonne of CO2 has fallen 77% since April 2006, Carr writes. The increase in benchmark prices would be the first since 2010.

A proposed measure to stabilize the continent’s carbon market goes to a vote before the European Parliament’s environment committee February 24.