Coal—once the world’s cheapest form of energy—is now the most expensive after oil prices crashed through March. But analysts say the price point will need to stick around for a while if it is to accelerate investors’ moves away from fossil fuels and toward green energy.

“Oil’s epic collapse over the past month means the global crude benchmark is now priced below the most widely traded coal contract on an energy-equivalent basis,” reports BNN Bloomberg, citing March 20 data that showed Australia’s Newcastle coal at the equivalent of US$27.36 per barrel of crude on a European energy trading market, while “Brent futures ended at $26.98 a barrel. (As of April 1, Brent crude was trading at US$25.23 per barrel.)

So far, cheap natural gas and renewables combined with “flat energy demand growth” have led to a decline in coal use in the U.S. and Europe. But demand for coal in Asia, “where it’s traditionally been the cheapest option for energy-hungry emerging markets,” continues strong. Coal, the world’s dirtiest fuel, emits “about twice as much carbon dioxide as natural gas and 30% more than gasoline when burned.” [Though the comparison between coal and gas typically sidesteps the large volumes of methane emitted during the natural gas fracking process.—Ed.]

While pricey coal—a phenomenon that is almost entirely a function of floundering oil markets—will need to last a long time before it reshapes coal investments or power plant construction plans, some effects are already being seen. Newcastle coal has been more expensive than liquefied natural gas in Asia for most of the year, observes Bloomberg, and “coal use in Japan could fall marginally this summer in favour of cheaper LNG”.