Advances in climate modelling and supercomputing are finally making it possible to “downscale” predictions of climate change impacts to smaller local areas. “Scientists begin with one or more of the dozens of global climate models and real-world data on weather and topography. They use complex computer simulations, statistical calculations, or both to pinpoint their predictions to the realm of the particular,” Ostrander reports. “The results help answer practical questions—such as how drought might spread across Africa, how bad Lyme disease could become in Maine as warmer winters let deer ticks march north, or how often the Columbia River will flood by the middle or end of this century.”
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