Even as far-right support surged amid a Christian Democratic Union election win, experts suggest that Germany’s climate policy will remain largely unchanged, though the messaging may shift.
“We expect Germany to stay the course,” Linda Kalcher of Berlin-based Strategic Perspectives told The Associated Press. But there is likely to be a “change of tone.”
“A lot of the policies the new government will put forward might not come in the name of climate, but it will be for prosperity, innovation, and competitiveness,” even if the end goal is the same, she said.
Germany’s federal election followed the collapse of the previous “traffic light” coalition between the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP), and the Greens—which left the future of the country’s climate policy uncertain.
The anticipated leadership shift was confirmed on Sunday when the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) won 28.5% of the vote, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) saw a record vote of 20.8%. The SPD, once the leading party, secured 16.4%, while the Greens dropped from 14.7% to 11.6%.
CDU leader Friedrich Merz campaigned on tougher immigration, tax cuts, and a stronger stance against Russia and Donald Trump’s United States, even as Germany’s own far-right representation—supported by the likes of Elon Musk and JD Vance—almost doubled. Merz will replace Olaf Scholz as chancellor, but with the CDU falling short of a majority, he still needs to partner with another party to secure a majority, writes the New York Times.
A CDU-AfD accord would provide the largest two-party coalition possible, but Merz promised not to work with the far-right group, which has been criticized for aligning with Nazism, attempting to minimize the Second World War Holocaust, and supporting blood-based citizenship. Founded in 2013 by “disaffected CDU” members, AfD broke Germany’s long-standing stigma against far-right representation when it became the third-largest party in 2017, writes The Conversation. Its turnout Sunday was its highest in an election, but polls show the party’s support has fallen since last year.
In January, Merz drew widespread criticism for introducing an anti-immigration motion that could only pass with AfD support, the Times writes.
Merz also signalled that he is not currently interested in forming a three-way coalition with the Greens, which means their influence on climate policy will not be repeated in the new government.
Instead, the CDU is expected to join with the weakened SPD, an alliance that would likely stay the course on existing climate policy without delivering greater ambition on decarbonization. Merz is not known as a fierce climate advocate, but he has repeatedly said that he recognizes the need to rapidly mitigate emissions—and to make the German economy fit to compete in a post-fossil future, writes Clean Energy Wire.
The two parties are already aligned on many key climate laws, including Germany’s commitments to become climate neutral by 2045, advance the energy transition across all sectors, and continue expanding renewables with gas-fired power stations for backup.
But they also disagree on some fronts, like whether or not to consider reopening Germany’s shuttered nuclear power plants in light of gas shortages following Russia’s war in Ukraine. They also differ—with SPD in favour, CDU against— on a contentious heating law banning fossil-fuelled boilers for heating.
CDU also supports abolishing regulation for corporate sustainability and human rights in supply chains, putting a stop to Europe’s Taxonomy and Corporate Sustainability Reporting, and reversing the European Union’s 2035 combustion engine phaseout—all of which SPD wants to maintain, Clean Energy Wire reports.
