Canada’s strained relationship with the Trump administration is raising concerns in the farm sector on both sides of the border, threatening to lower farm incomes, drive up consumer food prices, and hinder farmer efforts to adapt to climate change.

Amid tariff threats and even the possibility of U.S. annexation, worsening climate impacts will make it harder for the Canadian farm sector to diversify or grow domestic markets, Geneviève Grossenbacher, director of policy at Farmers for Climate Solutions, told The Energy Mix.

“More than ever, building climate resilience is important to safeguard our national food security and economic viability long term,” Grossenbacher said. To support farmers, policies must focus on building resilience and lowering costs on farms.

Since Donald Trump’s inauguration three weeks ago, uncertainty over trade has forced Canada to reevaluate economic ties with its unpredictable southern neighbour. Earlier this month, Canada and Mexico were both tentatively spared from a trade war with a 30-day reprieve, but on Monday Trump announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium from all countries, including Canada, and businesses are already feeling the effects.

The tariffs are especially concerning given Trump’s continuing rumblings about using economic pressure to push Canada into becoming a 51st U.S. state—a claim that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau privately acknowledged in a recent meeting as “a real thing.”

Canada’s National Farmers Union (NFU) responded to Trump’s threats by calling for a stronger focus on food sovereignty. The union advocates for diversifying export markets, building regional and local markets, and preventing corporate profiteering, among other things—to protect Canadian farmers, workers, and consumers.

“The democratic control of important decisions about food and agriculture… is a key strategy to withstand President Trump’s economic pressure tactics, which are brazenly aimed at annexing Canada,” NFU wrote in a news release.

Climate change further complicates the outlook for Canadian farmers, with unpredictable and severe weather affecting yields. In a nation-wide poll, more than three-quarters of Canadian farmers recently said they had experienced severe weather in the last five years and ranked climate change among the top challenges facing the sector in the coming decade.

Solutions come with a hefty price tag. Building climate resilience on farms often depends on adopting new practices, said Max Hansgen, president of an NFU Ontario chapter. This may involve costly options like acquiring new equipment or hiring more labour. The changes would pay off in the long term, but in the interim farmers would need to raise product prices or increase production to make ends meet.

When combined with Trump’s tariffs, price increases to accommodate new practices could make farm products too expensive to sell. And increasing production without a viable market is “an obvious waste of capital,” said Hansgen.

“In an effort to remain competitively priced, farmers may opt to continue current practices to keep costs down.”

But the reverse could also be true for farms that are not reliant on export markets. If increased domestic demand created “the exact opposite economic conditions,” Hansgen added, it could help farmers invest in infrastructure changes that promote climate resilience.

“Proposed Canadian counter-tariffs and consumer sentiment could be a boon for producers who focus on the domestic market.”