China’s anticipated emissions decline in 2024 was thwarted by surging energy demand and a clash of clean energy supplies against long-term coal contracts, analysis finds.
Energy demand growth was so “abnormally” high in 2024, that even “massive clean-energy additions” were only enough to stabilize emissions, not reduce them, Lauri Myllivirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, writes for Carbon Brief.
China’s emissions are a key factor in global climate efforts because it is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases. The top three emitters—China, the United States, and India—contribute 42% total global emissions, and any increase or decrease in China’s climate pollution can have significant implications for global climate targets.
Myllivirta had previously projected that China’s emissions would peak in 2024, but as the year went on, its fluctuating performance on energy made it difficult to predict the outcome, though the margins remained narrow. Emissions were high early in the year, then dropped between March and August, only to rise again in early autumn as high temperatures raised power demand for cooling, Myllivirta assessed in November.
China still had a chance to show an overall emissions decrease, but even after people stopped using air conditioners, a government stimulus package—aimed at boosting household spending with subsidies for car and appliance purchases—may have driven up energy consumption.
The end result was that China’s 2024 emissions rose 0.8% from 2023, due to a 0.6% increase in the fourth-quarter, as “hopes of stimulus measures” spurred industrial coal use and oil demand. Energy demand rose fast enough to overshadow gains in renewable energy capacity and to outpace GDP growth.
Meanwhile, sun and wind power underperformed—which Myllivirta suggests was caused by those power sources being denied grid access in favour of coal. Though China leads the world in expanding renewables capacity, it also pushed its electricity companies to sign long-term contracts with coal companies, complete with guaranteed sales volumes. So, if renewable power floods the grid in China to exceed demand, it is curtailed to honour coal contracts. New coal plants coming online may also have pre-signed power purchase agreements that maintain their output even when it isn’t needed, writes Myllivirta.
Looking ahead, China remains on track for another record-breaking year of renewables expansion. In 2024, new installations added 277 gigawatts of solar and 79 gigawatts of wind to the grid. Now in 2025, about the same amount solar is expected to be added, while wind power is scheduled for a record 110- to 120-gigawatt increase.
Increases in nuclear and hydropower generation are also in the plan—taken together, these non-emitting power sources will add 600 terawatt-hours per year of electricity, 100 TWh more than in 2024.
China is also rapidly building out its battery energy storage capacity, with installed capacity now above 70 million kilowatts, reports XinhuaNet.
Myllivirta’s analysis indicates this would be enough for China to finally set its emissions on a downward trend in 2025, if renewables are allowed to displace coal contracts—and depending on whether demand will continue rising, possibly due to further stimulus efforts, or more construction in a reinvigorated real-estate sector. With the country’s next set of Paris Agreement commitments due this year, “policy decisions made in 2025 will strongly affect China’s emissions trajectory not only this year, but for many years into the future,” writes Myllivirta.
