According to the latest projections from 440 Megatonnes, Canada is poised to fall more than 20 years behind on its emissions targets. At the current rate, the country is far off track for its near-term climate goals and will be lucky to hit its 2030 target in 2050. The prospect of net-zero emissions, which governments across the country have promised to reach by mid-century, is nowhere in sight.
Higher emissions are a policy choice. The emissions data and the modeling both show that climate policies work—emissions are lower than they would have been without those policies—but governments have weakened, delayed, or cancelled measures that would have delivered more climate progress.
Higher emissions come with rising costs. The Canadian Climate Institute’s analysis of climate damages has shown that a changing climate is already becoming a constant drag on Canada’s economy—a conclusion reinforced by the new edition of Canada’s Changing Climate released last week.
But higher emissions are also not inevitable. Canada’s experience shows that well-designed climate policies can protect affordability and competitiveness, while reducing emissions. Indeed, the path to reach the goals that Canada has set for itself—lower emissions, competitive industries, diversified export markets, and secure, affordable energy—runs through good climate policy.
Projected Emissions Are Higher Because Promised Policies Are Weaker
Figure 1 illustrates both good news and bad. The good news is that climate policies have worked. The top line shows that emissions would have been much higher without the measures introduced since 2015. The bad news is that Canada’s current policy package still leaves a cavernous gap between the country’s emissions and net-zero.
Previous analysis we conducted with Navius Research in 2023 showed that the full suite of policies in the federal 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan could have put Canada within reach of its near-term targets, if governments had followed through on everything they promised. But governments never implemented all of those measures. And since spring 2025, governments across the country have weakened or removed climate policies.
Our latest analysis with Navius Research looks at the impact of the Implementation Agreement of the Canada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) and finds that national emissions will remain stubbornly high through mid-century. As 440 Megatonnes has shown before, that is largely because changes proposed in this agreement are unlikely to fix existing problems with industrial carbon pricing, the largest single policy driver for emissions reductions.
The federal government has made other commitments that could reduce more emissions. Prime Minister Carney has promised updates to federal carbon pricing standards; new emissions regulations to achieve the equivalent of 75 per cent EV sales by 2035 and 90 per cent by 2040; and a strategy to expand the grid and electrify the economy. But the final details—and therefore the effectiveness—of those measures remain to be determined.
Weaker Policies Will Struggle to Offset Carbon-Intensive Development
Our analysis shows a wide distance between Canada’s emissions trajectory and the country’s targets. Even in our optimistic scenario for implementing the Canada-Alberta MOU, by 2040 there is a 202-megatonne gap between the country’s emissions and its net-zero pathway. By 2050, that gap grows to 460 megatonnes.
In other words, today’s climate policy commitments would be insufficient to achieve the country’s 2030 target—even by 2050.
Climate policies will also struggle to offset new, more carbon-intensive development. Canada is currently pursuing higher oil and gas production, new liquefied natural gas export facilities, and an expanded use of natural gas for electricity generation—all of which would increase the country’s emissions.
Our latest modelling explicitly accounts for one major carbon-intensive project: a new pipeline to the West Coast capable of carrying 1.4 million barrels of oil. We estimate that it could add roughly 20 megatonnes of annual emissions. Those emissions would swamp the 6 to 16 megatonnes of annual emissions reductions that the Oil Sands Alliance has most recently committed to deliver.
Climate policies have and will continue to reduce the country’s emissions. But those policies are now fewer and weaker, and they face increasingly stiff headwinds.
This Emissions Trajectory Is Not Inevitable
Lagging emissions progress is not inevitable. Canada can bend its emissions trajectory once again, and it can do so while pursuing other important goals related to sovereignty and economic diversification. Evidence shows that climate policies deliver—Canada’s coal phase out, methane regulations, and carbon price reduced emissions while the country’s exports and economy both grew. If governments want to pursue economic growth, trade diversification, and enhanced Canadian sovereignty while keeping net-zero emissions within sight, they will need a more balanced policy approach.
440 Megatonnes will continue to do the math and report on climate progress. Stay tuned as we launch our Climate Progress Tracker this fall, tracking the signals that tell us whether Canada is moving in the right direction on climate.
Ross Linden-Fraser is the Acting Director of 440 Megatonnes at the Canadian Climate Institute (CCI). Alison Bailie is a Senior Research Associate at the CCI. Rick Smith is President of the CCI, which first published this post under a Creative Commons BY 4.0 international license.
