1:22 AM

12:05 AM

The conversation has shifted to the dynamics of a possible minority Liberal government. Lyn Adamson, a longtime advocate for climate and peace said the strong Conservative vote tonight could create a challenge for the Liberals who need to stand up to the oil and gas lobby. Adamson added she would like to know whether young men are driving that Conservative vote: “what messages are they responding to? Are they resisting both energy transition/green economy and ‘woke’ culture?”

Economic development, cities, and climate action leader George Benson said, that if Conservative Party is polling above 40% with Pollievre’s leadership, then progressives need to step back and ask how to back those who are flocking to them.

Josephine Grey, a veteran community organizer, said that “many people want to believe climate issues are false because they are already so economically insecure that they can’t see how they could survive the shift from the fossil fuel economy.”

“These are the same people who think equity is a threat to their security,” she said. “The fear/rage algorithms have made a lot of people very confused and irrational.”

Advocating for a Basic Income Guarantee (BIG), Grey said it might help people let go of their fears to “be able to think again.” The climate community needs to include BIG as a key support for climate resilience and adaptation, she suggested. “There are many people in my community who would like to invest more time in our healthy food co-op but can’t because multiple low wage jobs devour all their time and energy,” she said. “A basic income would allow people stuck in fossil fuels and other polluting jobs to move towards a greener economy.”

Editor’s note: Even with the razor-close results, we aren’t sure this counts as multi-solving, Caroline.

The sense that Canada is in crisis, fuelled by threats from Trump, brings Canadians to a “singular moment of opportunity,” said sustainability advocate and community builder, Rebecca Aird.

She called for “a grounded but big picture vision of what is possible regionally and nationally to create more sustainable economies and a more satisfying and rich future.”

“It would take a lot of discipline over the coming years and decades—and very possibly more social consensus than can be mustered—to set ourselves up for success,” she said. Focusing only on climate mitigation may not be enough to win public support for needed solutions, she added.

Aird called on leaders to “multi-solve,” even if that means investing substantially in longer-term climate solutions.

“Canadians are seeing themselves differently right now,” she said. “The sense of crisis that has been brewing due to a growing affordability crisis, fraying safety nets, growing regional impacts of climate change, has now been exponentially fuelled by actions taken and threatened by Trump.”

Veteran community organizer Josephine Grey said “pushing for a human-rights-based Basic Income Guarantee to provide stability will help get us through the trade wars, housing and food crises, and help families and communities adapt to eco-chaos.”

The MAGA madness is giving us this opportunity as a country to choose human rights and climate action over corporate rule and extraction to extinction,” Grey said, adding “we should welcome escaping USians and States that want to join Canada.”

10:51 PM

As CBC News projected a Liberal government, Senator Rosa Galvez noted it is not yet clear if they will reach majority.

The stakes are high if Carney heads Canada, she added. “With Trump taking United States again out of the Paris Accord, there is such a climate-energy leadership void.”

“Carney’s Canada hopefully will fill some if not a lot of this space.”

An important United Nations climate summit, COP30, is coming up later this year, and Latin American parliamentarians wanting to make sure that this COP is different than the last 3 ones, Galvez added.

“I’m sharing with you that we are more that 100 parliamentarians of the Americas including four from the United States asking the Amazon countries to stop the expansion of fossil fuels.”

“There are several Liberal, BQ and NDP MPs for whom the climate and energy agenda is top of their priorities, so we all—for whom preserving a livable planet is priority—must start strategizing to implement and report on progress so Canada does not remain as the only G7 country that can’t decouple emissions from economy.”

Who Carney picks as ministers for environment, natural resources and global affairs will be key, Galvez added. “I’m hoping that a stronger environment position for negotiators at COP30 can be put together if Carney decides to fill the void.”

Emergency physician Courtney Howard, a climate-health advocacy leader and Energy Mix panelist, said she went with roasted chickpeas as the “healthier choice for stress eating” category during election watch.

10:50 PM

Communications advisor Jessie Sitnick pointed to pre-election analysis by David Coletto on what motivates voters. Sitnick said people voting Conservative are driven by hope—hope for change—while those voting Liberal are motivated by fear, particularly fear of Trump.

And voters supporting the NDP, Coletto wrote, “aren’t just reacting to fear or uncertainty—they’re pushing for something better, something fairer.”

The Mix publisher Mitchell Beer suggested that while fear can be a powerful motivator, it often fades, giving way to apathy or resignation.
“I wonder if people are more motivated by preventing loss than by seizing opportunity,” Sitnick said.

George Benson, a leader in economic development and climate action, said this pattern holds true in the financial sector. Investors aren’t as interested in renewable energy projects that require high capital expenditures and take time to turn a profit. “But they sure do care about not losing existing assets,” he added, referring to fossil fuel infrastructure and related investments.

10:50 PM

Rather than fitting climate change into the economic frame, could the focus shift to climate as an essential health issue suggested environmental, climate and democracy advocate Sabrina Bowman. And will any parties/politicians lean into this?

Climate communicator Conor Curtis responded that people respond to both frames, and that he sees them as complementary. “I think in general we get a bit caught up as a movement about choosing the right frame when often different frames can be layered on one another.”

“Health is huge for people and so is the economy so connecting those frames to climate is where we could make some big impacts on public opinion. And health impacts have economic costs and vice versa, he added. “The story should have layers”

Courtney Howard, an emergency physician and climate-health advocacy leader suggested a third alternative: “I think we maybe need to accept that “safety” is the frame and slot health into that. It’s doable.”

Safety is the most directly relevant and tangible frame, agreed communications advisor Jessie Sitnick. “Floods, fires, storms.  It’s about keeping families safe, keeping your home safe. And health does live in here but it’s also bigger than health. It’s a sense of control and security.”

10:45 PM

During the Liberal leadership campaign, Carney promised to replace consumer carbon pricing with a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), developed in coordination with “like-minded” countries.

Veteran policy analyst Aaron Freeman told the panel he expects CBAM to take “a long while to work out with other countries,” with the Liberal platform itself indicating it wouldn’t take effect until 2027–28.

Climate communicator and organizer Caroline Brouillette expressed reservations about the mechanism, which is essentially a climate-related tax on imports from countries without strong climate policies.
“CBAM is seen as a form of green colonialism from countries in the Global South,” Brouillette said. “Trade rules have been seen as huge barriers to an energy transition that is just, especially by ‘BASIC’ countries (Brazil, South Africa, India, China) [who] have kept raising this issue within climate diplomacy spaces.”
“The challenge now is to think about industrial policy in an internationalist way—or else we risk not only backlash in international cooperation, but also being excluded from access to key markets and fora.”

Touching on justice and reconciliation closer to home—and commenting on political pundit Jason Kenney’s claim that the Conservative Party has strong voices for Indigenous participation in energy development—communications advisor Jessie Sitnick noted Carney’s commitment to double the Canada Indigenous Loan Guarantee Program to C$10 billion, while also broadening its scope.
“I think this is a tremendous buoy for clean energy development and infrastructure,” Sitnick said.

On this front, utility BC Hydro’s recent call for power has “the bones of the way forward,” George Benson suggested.

However, Freeman argued that “the bulk” of the funding would still go toward fossil fuel development and mining, noting from recent experience that “there is a lot of political energy to getting Indigenous equity stakes in these projects to get them expedited.”

Chris Henderson, a clean energy advisor to Aboriginal communities, agreed with Freeman’s assessment, but added that “the big money being moved” is all with Indigenous renewable electricity. He told the panel that expanding the Indigenous Loan Guarantee Program would be helpful, but that in its current form, it is “not that impactful.”
He said that when it comes to equity and debt lending for Indigenous clean energy projects, the Canada Infrastructure Bank plays a larger role—“by an order of magnitude”—and that details of the Investment Tax Credit will also matter, if reintroduced.

10:35 PM

The discussion has turned to how or whether Carney changes his tune beginning tomorrow, whichever way things end tonight.

Veteran climate activist and author Bill McKibben said his hope is that we “may be pushing on an increasingly open door.”

“When Trudeau took office, fossil fuel was considerably cheaper than renewables, and that still defines his worldview,” said McKibben.

“Carney will take office with renewables considerably cheaper—and the rest of the world is figuring that out.”

McKibben pointed to this week’s energy negotiations in the European Union, where the Trump administration’s pitch for more fossil fuel development was met with a shrug.

“The markets for endless hydrocarbons just aren’t going to be there, and Carney is smart enough to get ahead of that trend,” said McKibben. “But how you convince Alberta, I have no idea.”

George Benson, a leader on economic development, cities, and climate action said he’s watching larger African and SE Asian markets to see whether oil and gas markets aren’t there.

“I think Carney’s most effective message is to say ‘I can navigate these global shifts for you, not force them on you.’” The Mix publisher Mitchell Beer said “the persona Carney tried to build during the election was pragmatic, sweating the details, and if something isn’t working, we’ll fix it.”

“I think Carney’s going to always hew towards being a ‘navigator’ for the country, rather than someone who governs by dictate,” added Benson.“

The perception could be really helpful if (1) he does good ‘navigating,’ and (2) it feels like he still has a clear North Star on the horizon,” Benson said, “everyone wants more—both narratively and practically—than just a crisis manager.”

10:20 PM

Could climate change have faded as a concern in Canada because the government failed to deliver a clear, compelling vision of a better future

Sustainability advocate and community builder Rebecca Aird says that the Liberals, from the start of the Justin Trudeau era in 2015, “missed the opportunity to establish a concise, compelling narrative of the future-positive economy they were aiming to create.”

“Their climate actions looked (and often were) disconnected and scatter-shot,” Aird said.

Aird added she thinks Carney is capable of doing better, but that she hasn’t heard enough in the run up to this election that gives her confidence he will.

Will Carney live into his strengths on climate and the economy if elected tonight? asked campaigner Cat Abreu. “So far he’s missed the opportunity to change the conversation.”

“Instead, he’s accepted the Conservative framing of climate action being expensive, missed the chance to trumpet the economic and jobs benefits of a real transition, and promised to build more pipelines.”

“Carney certainly knows better,” said moderator Mitchell Beer, adding: “If the Liberal brain trust saw climate as a third rail issue during the campaign, rightly or wrongly, how does that play out tomorrow morning if they’ve formed a government?”

Climate communicator Conor Curtis, said climate needs to be recognized as “the practical way forward” a message that needs to reach audiences “we might not normally get to know.”

9:58 PM

Veteran energy modeller Ralph Torrie told the panel that while public transit investment is vital for social and public health, it’s a slow and limited tool for cutting emissions quickly.

“It takes ten years to plan and build a light rail or subway line,” Torrie said, adding that electrifying cars and trucks is the fastest way to drive down transportation emissions.

Transit advocate Denis Agar pointed out that new buses can be added in months, not years. Torrie agreed, but cautioned that the climate impact would still be small unless the added buses are electric and powered by renewable energy. “If you add enough buses that you attract people from cars to buses, emissions go down—provided the cars they come from are ICEs, and the transit riders you attract weren’t carpooling,” he said.

“Not every measure that reduces emissions qualifies as a priority for the urgent reduction of emissions. Those are the choices we need to make now.”

Dave Sawyer, a leading environmental economist, asked Torrie whether co-benefits should be considered when setting priorities.

“The priorities in an emergency are the measures that can be mobilized quickly and scaled relatively easily,” Torrie replied. “For environmentalists, some of our priorities will not score well on those criteria: public transit, deep retrofits, redesigned urban form.”

But could everyone be right? panel moderator Mitchell Beer, publisher of The Energy Mix, asked. “We need the high-impact, high-priority quick wins,” Beer said, “but I agree there’s no solution without transit.”

p9:45 PM

Public transit advocate, Denis Agar said he’s disappointed candidates haven’t seized upon public transit as a policy in this election, since “support for transit polls around the 80% pretty much everywhere.”

“Here in Metro Vancouver, there’s wall to wall support, from the business community to the social justice community,” he said. “No federal party has noticed yet how transit is the silver bullet climate measure, but we’ll keep raising it.”

Conor Curtis, climate communicator and friend of The Mix said he sees our election discussions “ignoring some issues where there is clear polling consensus on making climate progress.”

“We’re sometimes too caught up in the ‘debate mode’ election issues,” he said.

Agar said there is crushing overcrowding on transit across Canada, from Halifax to Kelowna to even smaller areas. “This is easily fixed (more buses), creates good local jobs, and most crucially, attracts more riders. We’ve seen massive growth in transit ridership basically as soon as more buses are added.”

Mitchell Beer, publisher of The Mix wondered “how much of this is about operating vs. capital spending in transit, and is congestion pricing the kind of ‘moment’ that can help people mobilize for the things we know we need to get done?”

Curtis replied that “it’s really down to creative solutions that integrate well with existing transit systems and adding capacity (through provincial or federal governments) to help communities discover and implement those solutions.”

Agar replied that he’s “absolutely paying attention to the runaway success in New York” with what he called “de-congestion pricing.”“The biggest problem we’re up against is that the centre-left party that runs this province, the British Columbia NDP, has staked their reputation on having removed the tolls from two bridges eight years ago,” he said. “Last year, they put up a huge billboard essentially saying ‘don’t forget, we’re the ones that removed the toll from this bridge,’ so that makes things complicated.” 

9:10 PM

“For an election commonly framed as ‘not about the climate’ I’m seeing nature emerge as Canadians’ top source of national identity (far above even hockey),” said Conor Curtis, climate communicator and good friend of The Mix. “This election is very much about our identity.”

“Polling from March showed 65% of Canadians favour renewables over oil and gas development, majority support for an end to oil and gas subsidies from more recent polling, as well as majority support for making sure oil and gas corporations are held accountable for pollution.”

“People are really concerned about the threat the U.S. administration poses to key water bodies like the Great Lakes. And while it’s often framed in terms of ‘water as a resource’ I think people are also honestly just concerned about the water bodies themselves,” said Curtis.

He had this prediction: “Water is going to emerge as a key sovereignty issue going forward and from my own experience it is something people are very engaged with as an issue already.”

7:50 PM

From just south of the border in Vermont, watching through their fingers and still “forever scarred” by their own recent election, veteran climate activist and author Bill McKibben said he hopes the U.S. results serve as a wake-up call for Canadians.

“I am extremely hopeful that our dismal experience down here will at least have had the saving grace of serving as a warning beacon for y’all!” said McKibben, a onetime proud resident of Leaside—one grade behind Stephen Harper at Northlea Public School in Toronto.

Award-winning campaigner Cat Abreu added that while there has been a bit of a “rebound effect”—with voters rejecting the chaos they see unfolding in the U.S. and conservative leaders suffering by comparison—climate policy has still taken a hit.

“To a large extent, climate was treated as a third rail issue in this election, with most leaders letting one party set the frame for the climate conversation, and no party presenting a climate platform that actually modelled a plan to meet our targets.”

Canadians Reject the Trump Vibe

Commenting on the idea that this election in particular is a “vibe” election, communications advisor Jessie Sitnick said the “anti-Trump vibe” shaping this vote is about more than just tariffs and takeover. “I think there it is a full package that includes anti-science, anti-evidence, anti-compassion, anti-equity,” Sitnick said. “I think that is what Canadians are rejecting.”

“And while that is not a statement about climate policy per se, I don’t think you can have climate progress if you don’t reject those attitudes and embrace their opposites.”

Another question to the panel, this time from leading environmental economist Dave Sawyer:

What are your top three climate or energy priorities for a new government?

For Caroline Brouillette, there is one important policy that doesn’t get enough attention: Canada committing to international climate finance beyond 2026.

“That’s key to us being a constructive and credible player in climate diplomacy,” she said, “especially as many—most drastically the U.S.—are cutting aid that makes it not only fairer for poorer countries to contribute to climate action, but possible.”

Liberal Leader Mark Carney “would know more about climate change than any elected official in the world, and roughly ten times as much about climate finance as any elected official in the world,” responded activist and author Bill McKibben, watching the election from across the border in Vermont.

Campaigner Cat Abreu hopes for real action from Carney: “Finally pass a single climate friendly fiscal policy in Canada? Finally introduce like one regulation on the finance sector? Actually implement this languishing green taxonomy that’s been done forever?”

Veteran environment and climate policy analyst Diane Beckett noted that several Canadian municipalities already have their priorities in order. Local leaders have urged federal parties to build a clean power grid and a high-speed rail network to boost self-reliance.

“We could do worse than to use that as our roadmap,” Beckett said.

With big words like sovereignty—and loud figures like Trump—dominating the conversation this election, there’s been growing concern that climate and the energy transition took a backseat.

Climate communicator and organizer Caroline Brouillette argues that whether or not politicians mentioned “climate” directly, this election focused on issues that have “everything to do with the climate crisis.”

“Accelerating unnatural disasters are behind the rising cost of groceries and food, global oil price spikes are leading to higher costs for heating, cooling and transportation, Arctic and water sovereignty are being threatened by a belligerent United States leader, and there were debates about cuts to financial assistance to poor countries in the Global South.”

Communications advisor Jessie Sitnick pointed out that it’s odd to talk about climate as if it’s just an “issue” when it’s actually a “context.”

Put another way, it’s not an issue but an era, said energy transition expert and advocate Dan Woynillowicz.

So what does an election look like in an era of climate change?

Veteran policy analyst Aaron Freeman looks at it in terms of the takeaways political actors will draw after the votes are counted: what mandates they’ll claim, and what priorities they’ll pursue.

“Leadership on this issue will depend more on the personalities that are elected and appointed to key positions rather than how climate played out during the campaign.” On that front, Freeman notes, there are some excellent champions positioned to win seats.

Hello all, this is Farida, The Mix’s managing editor. I’ll be updating this file through the night as results come in—and as our panel of experts, advocates, and friends across Canada tell us what’s on their mind: the wins, losses, surprises, and key moments.

Kicking things off earlier today, veteran Canadian energy modeller Ralph Torrie asked the panel a big question—especially as Canada faces economic threats and tensions with the United States—and rethinks its role on the world stage:

Do we want Canada to be an energy superpower?

It’s an idea both main party leaders would probably love to claim, especially with Canada focused on strength and independence. But Torrie pointed out that while past leaders like Stephen Harper talked up the idea—and it has now been adopted by Prime Minister Mark Carney, “presumably with a different technology mix”—the term itself is rooted in Cold War thinking. It suggests dominance and concentrated power, he said, at odds with the diversity, resilience, and equitability needed in a secure, sustainable world order.

Please check back in for updates as the evening progresses.