Prime Minister Mark Carney says a new oil pipeline out of Alberta is “more likely than not.”

In his first sit-down interview with The Canadian Press since becoming prime minister more than a year ago, Carney said Friday that given the increased global demand for secure new sources of energy due to the war in Iran, and Canada’s need to diversify to Asian markets, a new pipeline is “more probable than possible.”

“It’s all part of a bigger package. We’re making progress on that bigger package,” Carney said, referring to the memorandum of understanding his government signed with Alberta late last year.

“Part of our job is to figure out ways to make that work, to make it work that’s combined with reducing the emissions associated with oil.

“So all of that lines up to it’s more likely than not, which means more probable than possible. But none of that says it’s certain. Still a lot of work to be done.”

While Carney’s comments on the likelihood of a new Alberta pipeline are likely to be met with optimism in Calgary, the project still needs an energy company to step forward to build it, CP reports.

LaPresse was the first to report on Carney’s characterization of the likelihood of a new pipeline out of Alberta after its own interview with the prime minister earlier in the week.

And while Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has said repeatedly her preference is a new pipeline running to the north coast of B.C. — despite the objections of Coastal First Nations and B.C. Premier David Eby — Carney left the door open to alternative routes to get more Alberta oil to Asian markets.

“Well, there are multiple routes where there could be a pipeline,” Carney said.

Citing unnamed federal sources, the Globe and Mail reported last week that Ottawa was leaning toward a southern route for a new pipeline because it would face fewer environmental hurdles and less Indigenous opposition.

Carney also pointed to the recent U.S. approval of the Bridger Pipeline expansion in discussing options for other routes.

U.S. President Donald Trump signed a presidential permit authorizing that project earlier this week. It is considered a partial revival of the Keystone XL pipeline project that Trump initially approved in his first term, before it was later scrapped by Joe Biden.

In his interview with The Canadian Press, Carney also said Canada would not use energy or critical minerals as “leverage” in upcoming trade talks with U.S.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 1, 2026

— With files from Kyle Duggan and Mia Rabson