The European Union’s plan to hit carbon neutrality by 2050 and support a 1.5°C limit on average global warming will require the continent to install 400 gigawatts of new solar and wind per year between 2025 and 2035, ramp up hydrogen production, and develop viable carbon capture technology, concludes a recent study by an energy systems specialist at Aarhus University in Denmark.
The study, published last month in the journal Joule, finds that the added investment to hit 1.5°C would be less than the cost of allowing average warming to hit 2°, the American Association for the Advancement of Science reports via its EurekAlert! news service.
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The study shows that “we can reach the goal of the Paris agreement, but there’s a price to pay,” said Marta Victoria, an associate professor of energy systems modelling and solar photovoltaics at Aarhus’ Department of Mechanical and Production Engineering. A 2°C scenario would get by with a slower rate of annual investment in energy transition technologies, but “if we assume that the 2°C option suffers from more serious climate change impacts, the economic consequences of this will outweigh the costs of the 1.5°C option.”
The abstract in Joule appears to make no reference to energy efficiency, shifts in zoning and urban form, support for transit, walking, and biking, or other measures that would permanently reduce energy demand. It suggests a social cost of carbon of €120 per tonne for a 1.5 to 1.6°C pathway, or a cost of at least €300 per tonne to make a 1.5°C budget “cost optimal”.
The 400-GW annual target “aligns well with the Danish Government’s goal of four times more wind and solar energy before 2030, but the goal also applies to all European countries,” Victoria said. But it’s far above Europe’s past maximum deployment to date of 50 GW of renewables per year.
“The deployment of renewable energy will lead to comprehensive electrification of European societies,” EurekAlert! says, leaving sectors like aviation, shipping, and freight transport as areas with “a great need for green fuels and chemicals with a high energy density”. Victoria cited hydrogen as the storage technology that will help utilities balance grids with high dependence on distributed renewables, and called it “almost impossible” to meet the Paris targets without functional CCS technology.
