• About
    • Which Energy Mix is this?
  • Climate News Network Archive
  • Contact
The climate news that makes a difference.
No Result
View All Result
The Energy Mix
  • Canada
  • UK & Europe
  • Fossil Fuels
  • Ending Emissions
  • Community Climate Finance
  • Clean Electricity Grid
  • Cities & Communities
SUBSCRIBE
DONATE
  • Canada
  • UK & Europe
  • Fossil Fuels
  • Ending Emissions
  • Community Climate Finance
  • Clean Electricity Grid
  • Cities & Communities
SUBSCRIBE
DONATE
No Result
View All Result
The Energy Mix
No Result
View All Result
  • Canada
  • UK & Europe
  • Fossil Fuels
  • Ending Emissions
  • Community Climate Finance
  • Clean Electricity Grid
  • Cities & Communities
  FEATURED
‘Remarkable Rebuke’: 130 U.S, EU Legislators Ask UN to Ditch Fossil CEO as COP 28 Chair May 23, 2023
Ontario Overrules Cities to Push Gas Plant Expansions May 23, 2023
Climate Concerns Drive Job Choices for 40% of Workers Under 40 May 23, 2023
PEROVSKITES: Qcells Plans First Production Line for ‘Miracle’ Solar Cell May 23, 2023
Tokyo Residents Rally to Protect Trees, Stop Skyscrapers in Iconic Urban Park May 21, 2023
Next
Prev

Canada, U.K., U.S. Must Cut Oil and Gas 76% by 2030 to Keep 1.5° Alive, New Analysis Finds

March 23, 2022
Reading time: 5 minutes
Primary Author: The Energy Mix staff

jasonwoodhead23/flickr

jasonwoodhead23/flickr

31
SHARES
 

Canada is one of 19 oil and gas-producing countries that must reduce production by three-quarters this decade and phase it out completely by 2034 to keep a 1.5°C climate future within sight, while allowing less wealthy, more fossil-dependent economies more time to catch up, according to a new analysis released this week by the United Kingdom’s Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.

The report by Tyndall climate scientists Kevin Anderson and freelance researcher Dan Calverley “warns that there is no room for any nation to increase production, with all having to make significant cuts this decade,” the University of Manchester and the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) said in a release. “The richest, which produce over a third of the world’s oil and gas, must cut output by 74% by 2030; the poorest, which supply just one-ninth of global demand, must cut back by 14%.”

  • The climate news you need. Subscribe now to our engaging new weekly digest.
  • You’ll receive exclusive, never-before-seen-content, distilled and delivered to your inbox every weekend.
  • The Weekender: Succinct, solutions-focused, and designed with the discerning reader in mind.
Subscribe

The analysis is the first to apply an international fairness lens to the rapidly-diminishing atmospheric space available for emissions of any sort, said Greg Muttitt, IISD’s senior policy adviser, energy supply.

“We’re in a situation today where action to mitigate climate change is really urgent,” Muttitt told The Energy Mix. “The authors looked at how we can share the effort to stay within this atmospheric space in a way that is as fair as possible.”

That effort won’t be easy in any community or country that depends on fossil fuel production, and “there has to be a just transition for workers. We have to ensure that communities aren’t thrown under the bus. That is crucial, and it’s really the starting point for this research,” he said.

“But when you consider the challenges of delivering a just transition in Canada as a whole, or even in Alberta, while not suggesting that it is easy, it’s an order of magnitude less difficult than it is in a country like Iraq, where oil is the majority of the economy and the country doesn’t have the financial resources” to support the transition.

People everywhere tend to focus on their own immediate difficulties, Muttitt added. But “if you put it in context, whatever challenges Canada faces in a just transition are magnified manifold in poorer countries of the world, where oil dependency is that much greater.”

After factoring in those “difficulties and challenges, combined with other really pressing developmental needs, it is fair that wealthier countries that are less dependent on oil and gas need to step up and move faster than the poorer countries of the world.”

Particularly because “wealthy nations that are major producers, typically remain wealthy even once the oil and gas revenue is removed,” the report concludes.

To give humanity 50-50 odds of limiting average global warming to 1.5°C, Anderson and Calverley conclude that:

• 19 wealthiest countries representing 35% of global oil and gas production, including Canada, the U.K., the United States, Australia, Norway, and the United Arab Emirates, will have to cut their output 74% by 2030 and 100% by 2034.

• A second tier of 14 countries responsible for 30% of production, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Kazakhstan, must cut production 43% by 2030 and phase out oil and gas by 2039.

• Three groupings of poorer countries, collectively accounting for 35% of oil and gas production, will have to achieve 14 to 28% production cuts by 2030 and complete their phaseouts between 2043 and 2050.

“There is very little room for manoeuvre if we want to limit warming to 1.5°C,” Calverley stressed in the release. “Although this schedule gives poorer countries longer to phase out oil and gas production, they will be hit hard by the loss of income. An equitable transition will require substantial levels of financial assistance for poorer producers, so they can meet their development needs while they switch to low-carbon economies and deal with growing climate impacts.”

While the research was complete before Russia invaded Ukraine four weeks ago, the “rocketing oil and gas prices” triggered by Vladimir Putin’s war “only serve to strengthen the case we make in our report,” Anderson added. “Had we spent the last 20 years establishing an efficient and sensible use of energy alongside a massive rollout of renewables, we would not now be scrabbling around for alternative oil and gas supplies and facing the impacts of volatile prices. Now is exactly the time we should be planning for a renewable 21st century rather than reliving the oil-based 20th.”

Muttitt acknowledged that no jurisdiction in Canada or anywhere else is close to adopting the targets in the Tyndall Centre analysis.

“The honest answer is that no national government, at least no significant oil and gas producers, have signed up to these kind of timelines,” he said. But many of those countries have endorsed the 1.5°C target in the Paris climate agreement, and “where a report like this one is really important is that it shines a light on that gap.”

And big as the gap may be at the moment, Muttitt cited the growing momentum to end coal-fired electricity production as an example of how quickly momentum can shift.

“Any big change can feel out of reach, even quite close to when it actually happens,” he told The Mix. “The timeline for phasing out coal by 2030 in developed countries and 2040 or 2050 in developing countries was first proposed in 2016,” and “at that time it felt politically impossible. It felt out of reach. These were such vast timelines for transforming something that is quite fundamental to many countries.”

But in just over five years, “the idea that coal has to be phased out on those timelines has been mainstreamed,” as dozens of countries joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance and the need for fast action “quickly came into the political discourse and became accepted policy by many.”

The Tyndall report sets a “much faster pace than any government is committed to at this stage, but identifying what is needed is the first step,” Muttitt said. “After that, things can move quickly.”



in Africa, Australia, Canada, Carbon Levels & Measurement, Community Climate Finance, Ending Emissions, International Agencies & Studies, Jobs & Training, Middle East, Oil & Gas, UK & Europe, United States

The latest climate news and analysis, direct to your inbox

Subscribe

Related Posts

Arctic Circle/flickr
COP Conferences

‘Remarkable Rebuke’: 130 U.S, EU Legislators Ask UN to Ditch Fossil CEO as COP 28 Chair

May 23, 2023
332
Inspiration 4 Photos/flickr
Climate Impacts & Adaptation

Cooling Upper Atmosphere Has Scientists ‘Very Worried’

May 23, 2023
199
Jon Sullivan/flickr
Clean Electricity Grid

Ontario Overrules Cities to Push Gas Plant Expansions

May 23, 2023
824

Comments 1

  1. Jack says:
    1 year ago

    Let’s face it, there is no way the world will cease using 75% of its current hydrocarbon fuels within the remaining lifetimes of those accustomed to them. Anyone who has spoken to a post-war or baby boomer knows that they will never give up their comfort or ability to travel wherever & whenever they please. Perhaps the young generation that is witnessing the destruction of its future habitat might have the motivation to change, yet they won’t be in positions of power for at least another 30 years.

    Only severe natural catastrophes will convince nations to curtail demand. I predict nations will begin to outlaw the combustion of hydrocarbon fuels when they feel their own mortality, yet not before, and by then it will be much too late.

    Of course, a significant reduction of the populations of the three biggest offenders, namely China, India, & the USA, could effectively reduce fuel demand. That has happened many times throughout history by war, famine, or disease. We are on the brink of another world war due to Russian aggression, and sadly, the war machines would emit even more GHGs & pollution.

    This does not even begin to address fuels required to heat & cool buildings. It is practically impossible to eliminate fuel combustion to heat homes & other buildings in counties with cold climates like Canada, it is needed just to survive. Mechanical cooling is widely used for comfort, yet we see a trend developing in certain southern climates of deaths by heat, making cooling essential for survival in those areas.

    I’m afraid it all seems rather hopeless.

    Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

I agree to the Terms & Conditions and Privacy Policy.

Trending Stories

Activités culturelles UdeM/Flickr

Climate Concerns Drive Job Choices for 40% of Workers Under 40

May 23, 2023
146
Jon Sullivan/flickr

Ontario Overrules Cities to Push Gas Plant Expansions

May 23, 2023
824
McDonald's/flickr

McDonald’s Failing to Follow Through on Climate Promises, Critics Say

December 17, 2021
1.4k
University of Oxford Press Office/flickr

PEROVSKITES: Qcells Plans First Production Line for ‘Miracle’ Solar Cell

May 23, 2023
354
Inspiration 4 Photos/flickr

Cooling Upper Atmosphere Has Scientists ‘Very Worried’

May 23, 2023
199
Arctic Circle/flickr

‘Remarkable Rebuke’: 130 U.S, EU Legislators Ask UN to Ditch Fossil CEO as COP 28 Chair

May 23, 2023
332

Recent Posts

Andrés Nieto Porras/wikimedia commons

‘Carbon Neutral’, ‘Net-Zero’ Claims Face Global Greenwash Crackdown

May 23, 2023
180
peellden/Wikimedia Commons

Scientists Sound Alarm on Methane Emissions, Habitat Hazards at U.S. Hydro Dams

May 23, 2023
139
nakashi/flickr

Tokyo Residents Rally to Protect Trees, Stop Skyscrapers in Iconic Urban Park

May 21, 2023
452
http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/unrecognizable-from-the-original-design-suburban-renovations-disprove-cookie-cutter-stereotype

Embrace Suburbs, Exurbs in Climate Planning, Researchers Urge Cities

May 21, 2023
42
Trocker767/wikimedia commons

Renewable-Powered Greenhouse Brings Fresh Produce Bounty to Gjoa Haven Inuit

May 21, 2023
53
HarmvdB/pixabay

Vermont Gas Utility Pivots to Heat Pumps

May 21, 2023
350
Next Post
Trudeau photo: Women Deliver/Jagmeet Singh photo: OFL Communications Department/Flickr

Liberal-NDP Deal Delivers More Stability, Not Enough Climate Action, Analysts Warn

The Energy Mix - The climate news you need

Copyright 2023 © Energy Mix Productions Inc. All rights reserved.

  • About
  • Contact
  • Privacy Policy and Copyright
  • Cookie Policy

Proudly partnering with…

scf_withtagline
No Result
View All Result
  • Canada
  • UK & Europe
  • Fossil Fuels
  • Ending Emissions
  • Community Climate Finance
  • Clean Electricity Grid
  • Cities & Communities

Copyright 2022 © Smarter Shift Inc. and Energy Mix Productions Inc. All rights reserved.

Manage Cookie Consent
To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behaviour or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
Functional Always active
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
Preferences
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
Statistics
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes. The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
Marketing
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Manage options Manage services Manage vendors Read more about these purposes
View preferences
{title} {title} {title}