• About
    • Which Energy Mix is this?
  • Climate News Network Archive
  • Contact
The climate news that makes a difference.
No Result
View All Result
The Energy Mix
  • Canada
  • UK & Europe
  • Fossil Fuels
  • Ending Emissions
  • Community Climate Finance
  • Clean Electricity Grid
  • Cities & Communities
SUBSCRIBE
DONATE
  • Canada
  • UK & Europe
  • Fossil Fuels
  • Ending Emissions
  • Community Climate Finance
  • Clean Electricity Grid
  • Cities & Communities
SUBSCRIBE
DONATE
No Result
View All Result
The Energy Mix
No Result
View All Result
  • Canada
  • UK & Europe
  • Fossil Fuels
  • Ending Emissions
  • Community Climate Finance
  • Clean Electricity Grid
  • Cities & Communities
  FEATURED
Biden Approves $8B Oil Extraction Plan in Ecologically Sensitive Alaska March 14, 2023
U.S. Solar Developers Scramble after Silicon Valley Bank Collapse March 14, 2023
$30.9B Price Tag Makes Trans Mountain Pipeline a ‘Catastrophic Boondoggle’ March 14, 2023
UN Buys Tanker, But Funding Gap Could Scuttle Plan to Salvage Oil from ‘Floating Time Bomb’ March 9, 2023
Biden Cuts Fossil Subsidies, But Oil and Gas Still Lines Up for Billions March 9, 2023
Next
Prev

Temporary 1.5° Overshoot Would Increase Heat and Drought, Harm GDP, Scientists Warn

December 1, 2021
Reading time: 2 minutes

Pierre Banoori/Wikimedia Commons

Pierre Banoori/Wikimedia Commons

17
SHARES
 

Opting for a temporary “overshoot” of end-of-century global temperature targets and the subsequent “Hail Mary” deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies, rather than never permitting global heating to exceed safe limits, would leave both the climate and the global economy very much worse off by 2100, warns new research.

Known as the “end-of-century” pathway, the overshoot + CDR route to capping global heating at 1.5°C (or 2°C) by 2100 is a popular one, but should not be, say the authors of two new studies just published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

  • The climate news you need. Subscribe now to our engaging new weekly digest.
  • You’ll receive exclusive, never-before-seen-content, distilled and delivered to your inbox every weekend.
  • The Weekender: Succinct, solutions-focused, and designed with the discerning reader in mind.
Subscribe

By comparison, a true “net-zero” pathway would help keep a lid on both climate havoc and economic distress by reducing emissions early enough to keep global heating below Paris targets, writes Carbon Brief. Climate scientist Dr. Laurent Drouet, lead author of one of the studies, traced the continuing popularity of overshoot models to their tendency to focus primarily on costs of climate change mitigation, rather than accounting for “the geophysical and economic impacts from climate change.”

By that deeply limited logic, it looks like a sound idea to kick the can of emissions reductions down the road until CDR is advanced enough to swoop to the rescue.

In a global research first, Drouet’s team “calculated the probabilistic climate impacts of a range of indicators—including the frequency and duration of heat waves and agricultural drought—in both the end-of-century and net-zero pathways to 1.5°C and 2°C warming,” Carbon Brief reports. The study found a significantly larger probability of “high” heat wave duration on the overshoot pathway. The impacts would land heaviest on western and southern Africa and Brazil.

While net-zero pathways either avoided damage or produced economic benefits, Drouet and his team found that overshoot-dependent pathways delivered both higher mitigation costs and more economic damage by 2050.

A second study led by Dr. Keywan Riahi, program director at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), found that “global GDP in 2100 will be up to 2% higher in scenarios that avoid overshoot,” Carbon Brief adds.

While avoiding overshoot through aggressive mitigation efforts will require “higher up-front costs” than embracing offshoot + CDR, the payoff will come once net-zero is achieved and the economy rebounds, the authors reported.

Riahi’s team also found that allowing overshoots would come at a steep climate cost, with the planet warming as much as an extra 0.16°C by 2100.



in Africa, Brazil, CCS & Negative Emissions, Climate Denial & Greenwashing, Drought, Famine & Wildfires, Ending Emissions, Heat & Temperature, International Agencies & Studies, Legal & Regulatory

The latest climate news and analysis, direct to your inbox

Subscribe

Related Posts

U.S. Bureau of Land Management/flickr
Oil & Gas

Biden Approves $8B Oil Extraction Plan in Ecologically Sensitive Alaska

March 14, 2023
76
EcoAnalytics
Media, Messaging, & Public Opinion

Canadians Want Strong Emissions Cap Regulations, Not More Missed Targets

March 14, 2023
79
Behrat/Wikimedia Commons
Clean Electricity Grid

Hawaii Firm Turns Home Water Heaters into Grid Batteries

March 14, 2023
340

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

I agree to the Terms & Conditions and Privacy Policy.

Trending Stories

Behrat/Wikimedia Commons

Hawaii Firm Turns Home Water Heaters into Grid Batteries

March 14, 2023
340
U.S. National Transportation Safety Board/flickr

$30.9B Price Tag Makes Trans Mountain Pipeline a ‘Catastrophic Boondoggle’

March 14, 2023
157
David Dodge, Green Energy Futures/flickr

U.S. Solar Developers Scramble after Silicon Valley Bank Collapse

March 14, 2023
105
EcoAnalytics

Canadians Want Strong Emissions Cap Regulations, Not More Missed Targets

March 14, 2023
79
U.S. Bureau of Land Management/flickr

Biden Approves $8B Oil Extraction Plan in Ecologically Sensitive Alaska

March 14, 2023
76
Rebecca Bollwitt/flickr

Fossils Stay ‘Oily’, Gibsons Sues Big Oil, U.S. Clean Energy Booms, EU Pushes Fossil Phaseout, and Fukushima Disaster was ‘No Accident’

March 14, 2023
78

Recent Posts

Raysonho/wikimedia commons

Purolator Pledges $1B to Electrify Last-Mile Delivery

March 14, 2023
52
United Nations

UN Buys Tanker, But Funding Gap Could Scuttle Plan to Salvage Oil from ‘Floating Time Bomb’

March 10, 2023
89
Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia Commons

Biden Cuts Fossil Subsidies, But Oil and Gas Still Lines Up for Billions

March 10, 2023
174
jasonwoodhead23/flickr

First Nation Scorches Imperial Oil, Alberta Regulator Over Toxic Leak

March 8, 2023
366
MarcusObal/wikimedia commons

No Climate Risk Targets for Banks, New Guides for Green Finance as 2 Federal Agencies Issue New Rules

March 8, 2023
234
FMSC/Flickr

Millions Face Food Insecurity as Horn of Africa Braces for Worst Drought Ever

March 8, 2023
244
Next Post
StockSnap/pixabay

Climate Change ‘Loads the Dice’ as Canada Looks Ahead to Winter Weather Whiplash

The Energy Mix - The climate news you need

Copyright 2023 © Energy Mix Productions Inc. All rights reserved.

  • About
  • Contact
  • Privacy Policy and Copyright
  • Cookie Policy

Proudly partnering with…

scf_withtagline
No Result
View All Result
  • Canada
  • UK & Europe
  • Fossil Fuels
  • Ending Emissions
  • Community Climate Finance
  • Clean Electricity Grid
  • Cities & Communities

Copyright 2022 © Smarter Shift Inc. and Energy Mix Productions Inc. All rights reserved.

Manage Cookie Consent
To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behaviour or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
Functional Always active
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
Preferences
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
Statistics
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes. The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
Marketing
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Manage options Manage services Manage vendors Read more about these purposes
View preferences
{title} {title} {title}