• About
    • Which Energy Mix is this?
  • Climate News Network Archive
  • Contact
The climate news that makes a difference.
No Result
View All Result
The Energy Mix
  • Canada
  • UK & Europe
  • Fossil Fuels
  • Ending Emissions
  • Community Climate Finance
  • Clean Electricity Grid
  • Cities & Communities
SUBSCRIBE
DONATE
  • Canada
  • UK & Europe
  • Fossil Fuels
  • Ending Emissions
  • Community Climate Finance
  • Clean Electricity Grid
  • Cities & Communities
SUBSCRIBE
DONATE
No Result
View All Result
The Energy Mix
No Result
View All Result
  • Canada
  • UK & Europe
  • Fossil Fuels
  • Ending Emissions
  • Community Climate Finance
  • Clean Electricity Grid
  • Cities & Communities
  FEATURED
Renewables ‘Set to Soar’ with 440 GW of New Installations in 2023: IEA June 4, 2023
Greek Industrial Giant Announces 1.4-GW Alberta Solar Farm, Canada’s Biggest June 4, 2023
Shift to Remote Work Cuts Commutes, Frees Downtown Space for Affordable Housing June 4, 2023
2.7M Hectares Lost, Nova Scotia at Ground Zero in ‘Unprecedented’ Early Wildfire Season June 4, 2023
Is Equinor’s Bay du Nord ‘Delay’ a Cancellation in Slow Motion? June 1, 2023
Next
Prev

China’s Aviation Emissions Set to Quadruple by 2050

February 3, 2020
Reading time: 3 minutes

Michael Rehfeldt/Flickr

Michael Rehfeldt/Flickr

1
SHARES
 

Despite the spread of the “flight shame” phenomenon and industry pledges to address the carbon footprint of aviation, greenhouse gas emissions from commercial flights are expected to increase 300% by 2050, with emissions from China’s aviation sector projected to nearly quadruple.

“According to analysis published last year by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT),” writes Carbon Brief, “Chinese flights emitted 95 MtCO2 (megatonnes of carbon dioxide) in 2018, making up 13% of global aviation emissions,” a finding that places that country second in global emissions. First in the world was the U.S., at 182 MtCO2, while U.K. flights that year emitted 30 MtCO2.

  • Concise headlines. Original content. Timely news and views from a select group of opinion leaders. Special extras.
  • Everything you need, nothing you don’t.
  • The Weekender: The climate news you need.
Subscribe

And there is little sign of a slowdown. This year, the Chinese aviation sector is expected to hit 130 MtCO2, according to a study by the China Academy of Civil Aviation Science and Technology and Nankai University, recently published in the journal Energy Policy. Citing an International Air Transport Association (IATA) prediction, Carbon Brief adds that China will “overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest passenger market by 2029.”

Faced with a dearth of research on CO2 emissions from China’s aviation sector, the authors of the recent Energy Policy paper created their own forecasting model for long-term carbon emissions, “taking into account the growth rate of distances being travelled, fuel consumption, and replacement rate of biofuels as fossil fuel alternatives.”

Although “the alternative fuel factor has not yet played a role in emissions and the future development trend is uncertain,” the Chinese scientists say the uptake of biofuels appears essential to achieving a low-carbon scenario.

“Under their ‘benchmark’ scenario, in which demand rises while average distance travelled and fuel efficiency remain constant, and biofuels are not a factor, emissions rise to 456 MtCO2 by 2050, 3.5 times higher than in 2020,” says Carbon Brief. “Worse, under the ‘development’ scenario, in which the average distance travelled by passengers continues to rise, the emissions nearly quadruple to 516 MtCO2 by 2050.”

Once biofuel replacement enters the picture, things improve significantly: “For the more ambitious low-carbon scenarios in which biofuel replacement reaches 25% or even 50%, this rise is significantly curtailed—to 310 and 208 MtCO2, respectively.”

But while the numbers are plausible, especially in terms of traffic growth and fuel efficiency improvements, there exists “no good baseline for assessing the scenarios with significant level of biofuel replacement used in this study,” Sola Zheng, an ICCT researcher specializing in Chinese aviation, told Carbon Brief. And though “the figures that are available suggest growth in the aviation sector—and accompanying emissions—will generally be slower in historically richer nations,” those nations are still contributing significantly to global aviation emissions.

While IATA points to “demand from people in developing economies” as the driver behind any rise in future emissions, “ICCT’s per-capita analysis shows that people in Australia, North America, and Europe are having a disproportionate impact,” says Carbon Brief, not least because the U.S. and the UK both “host major aerospace manufacturers.”

And then there is problem of historical emissions.

While China had initially signalled support for the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) developed by the International Civil Aviation Organization, it “subsequently declined to participate in the voluntary pilot phase beginning next year.”

In a joint statement with Russia, China accused CORSIA of lacking “moral fairness”. The two countries contended that, “given the difference among countries in development stage, historical responsibility, and coping capability, the ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach for CORSIA implementation orchestrated by developed countries is a de facto reversion to the law of the jungle.”



in Air & Marine, Carbon Levels & Measurement, China, Ending Emissions, Energy Access & Equity, International Agencies & Studies, Legal & Regulatory, UK & Europe, United States

The latest climate news and analysis, direct to your inbox

Subscribe

Related Posts

sunrise windmill
International Agencies & Studies

Renewables ‘Set to Soar’ with 440 GW of New Installations in 2023: IEA

June 4, 2023
118
Pixabay
Solar

Greek Industrial Giant Announces 1.4-GW Alberta Solar Farm, Canada’s Biggest

June 4, 2023
105
Oregon Department of Transportation/flickr
Cities & Communities

Shift to Remote Work Cuts Commutes, Frees Downtown Space for Affordable Housing

June 4, 2023
67

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

I agree to the Terms & Conditions and Privacy Policy.

Trending Stories

/MaxPixels

‘Substantial Damage’, No Injuries as Freight Train Hits Wind Turbine Blade

May 25, 2022
14.6k
Natural Resources Canada

2.7M Hectares Lost, Nova Scotia at Ground Zero in ‘Unprecedented’ Early Wildfire Season

June 4, 2023
140
sunrise windmill

Renewables ‘Set to Soar’ with 440 GW of New Installations in 2023: IEA

June 4, 2023
118
Pixabay

Greek Industrial Giant Announces 1.4-GW Alberta Solar Farm, Canada’s Biggest

June 4, 2023
105
Inspiration 4 Photos/flickr

Cooling Upper Atmosphere Has Scientists ‘Very Worried’

May 23, 2023
498
Equinor

Is Equinor’s Bay du Nord ‘Delay’ a Cancellation in Slow Motion?

June 1, 2023
858

Recent Posts

Oregon Department of Transportation/flickr

Shift to Remote Work Cuts Commutes, Frees Downtown Space for Affordable Housing

June 4, 2023
67
Clairewych/Pixabay

Demand Surges for Giant Heat Pumps as Europe Turns to District Heating

June 4, 2023
78
nicolasdebraypointcom/pixabay

Factor Gender into Transportation Planning, IISD Analyst Urges Policy-Makers

June 4, 2023
32
moerschy / Pixabay

Federal Climate Plans Must Embrace Community-Driven Resilience

June 4, 2023
46
debannja/Pixabay

Austin, Texas Council Committee Backs Fossil Non-Proliferation Treaty

June 4, 2023
79
Ottawa Renewable Energy Co-op/Facebook

‘Hinge Moment’ for Humanity Demands ‘YIMBY’ Mentality: McKibben

June 1, 2023
75
Next Post
©2011CIAT/NeilPalmer via Flickr

Developing Countries at Greatest Risk as Biodiversity Loss Threatens 50% of World GDP

The Energy Mix - The climate news you need

Copyright 2023 © Energy Mix Productions Inc. All rights reserved.

  • About
  • Contact
  • Privacy Policy and Copyright
  • Cookie Policy

Proudly partnering with…

scf_withtagline
No Result
View All Result
  • Canada
  • UK & Europe
  • Fossil Fuels
  • Ending Emissions
  • Community Climate Finance
  • Clean Electricity Grid
  • Cities & Communities

Copyright 2022 © Smarter Shift Inc. and Energy Mix Productions Inc. All rights reserved.

Manage Cookie Consent
To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behaviour or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
Functional Always active
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
Preferences
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
Statistics
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes. The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
Marketing
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Manage options Manage services Manage vendors Read more about these purposes
View preferences
{title} {title} {title}