India’s ambitions to have electric vehicles meet 30% of the country’s transportation needs by 2030 could save the country an estimated US$2.5 billion, according to a report co-authored by government policy think tank Niti Aayog (the National Institution for Transforming India) and the Snowmass, Colorado-based Rocky Mountain Institute.
The report estimates that roughly 80% of the country’s “two-wheelers,” that is, scooters and motor bikes, and up to 30% of its four-wheelers (a category which includes tractors, as well as cars and trucks) will be electric by 2030, India Times reports. If current government policies succeed, the country “could realize EV sales penetration of 30% of private cars, 70% of commercial cars, 40% of buses, and 80% of two- and three-wheelers by 2030.”
The lifetime direct carbon and oil savings from the EVs would be considerable, with the report authors predicting savings of 846 million tonnes of CO2 and 5.4 million tonnes of oil equivalent, for a dollar value of roughly US$2.5 billion.
Potentially complicating the “optimistic take” of the Niti/RMI report, writes The Times, is a recent study by the Mumbai-based global analytics firm, Crisil. It found “that many existing electric two-wheelers will not be able to use the incentives” under government programs because they will “fail the stringent eligibility criteria that restrict the subsidies to vehicles powered by lithium-ion batteries and having specific speed capabilities.”
The Times concludes that “with the industry appealing to the government to reconsider the criteria, there is expected to be ample to and fro between the centre and the industry before a set growth pattern for EV adoption in India can be decided upon.”