• About
    • Which Energy Mix is this?
  • Climate News Network Archive
  • Contact
The climate news that makes a difference.
No Result
View All Result
The Energy Mix
  • Canada
  • UK & Europe
  • Fossil Fuels
  • Ending Emissions
  • Community Climate Finance
  • Clean Electricity Grid
  • Cities & Communities
SUBSCRIBE
DONATE
  • Canada
  • UK & Europe
  • Fossil Fuels
  • Ending Emissions
  • Community Climate Finance
  • Clean Electricity Grid
  • Cities & Communities
SUBSCRIBE
DONATE
No Result
View All Result
The Energy Mix
No Result
View All Result
  • Canada
  • UK & Europe
  • Fossil Fuels
  • Ending Emissions
  • Community Climate Finance
  • Clean Electricity Grid
  • Cities & Communities
  FEATURED
Wind and Solar Cheaper than Gas Plants in Ontario and Alberta, Study Shows February 7, 2023
AI Predicts World Over 1.5°C Limit by 2030, Undercuts Climate Progress Reports February 7, 2023
February Brings Record Cold, Widespread Power Outages to Much of North America February 7, 2023
Solar Geoengineering Banned in Mexico After ‘Rogue’ Stunt February 7, 2023
Lithium Mine Divides Nemaska Cree Over Impacts, Benefits February 7, 2023
Next
Prev

Extreme River Flows More Likely at 2.0 Than at 1.5°C

September 9, 2018
Reading time: 2 minutes

cq19690527/pixabay

cq19690527/pixabay

 

Extreme river flows considered once-in-century events can be expected more frequently if average global warming is kept to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, but even more so in many regions at 2.0°C, according to an international study of major river systems around the world.

The study, recently published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, set out to address a serious problem in climate modelling: that the design of model experiments, which allow for a variance of about 0.5°C, prevents researchers from differentiating the risks associated with the high and low targets in the Paris Agreement.

  • Concise headlines. Original content. Timely news and views from a select group of opinion leaders. Special extras.
  • Everything you need, nothing you don’t.
  • The Weekender: The climate news you need.
Subscribe

The study authors say the problem is particularly acute with the hydrological cycle, due to the way major models deal with the distribution of global precipitation and changing atmospheric dynamics over the course of the century. “This, in turn, makes it difficult to differentiate whether detected differences result from additional warming or additional factors,” leading to the concern that the attribution of impacts at 1.5°C and 2.0°C average warming “may not be scientifically robust.”

The study team tried to address the problem using the HAPPI Protocol, a modelling framework ”specifically designed to simulate the specified Paris Agreement temperature targets as precisely as possible, by separating the impact of an additional approximately half degree of warming from uncertainty in climate model responses and internal climate variability.”

The study concluded that “the response at 2.0°C is not a uniform extension of the response at 1.5°, suggesting a non-linear global response of peak flows to the two mitigation levels.”

Even so, say the study authors, “committing to the 2.0°C warming target, rather than 1.5°C, is projected to lead to an increase in the frequency of occurrence of extreme flows” in many global regions, including “most of South America, central Africa, central-western Europe, the south of the U.S. (Mississippi river area), central Asia, and Siberian catchments.”

Notably, while the Yangtze and Indus basins were projected to experience more frequent one-in-100-year flow increases at 1.5°C, these values didn’t “change appreciably” between 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C.

The study also determined that the northern part of South America, areas of the western coast of the United States (Colorado River) and Canada, South Africa (Orange River), Scandinavia, and some parts of eastern Europe would see extreme river flows less frequently at either 1.5 or 2.0°C average warming.



in Climate Impacts & Adaptation, International Agencies & Studies, Severe Storms & Flooding, Water

The latest climate news and analysis, direct to your inbox

Subscribe

Related Posts

The hottest summer days in a typical New York City year are now about 11 times more frequent than in the 19th century. Image: Andreas Komodromos via Flickr
Carbon Levels & Measurement

AI Predicts World Over 1.5°C Limit by 2030, Undercuts Climate Progress Reports

February 7, 2023
61
Andre Carrotflower/wikimedia commons
Severe Storms & Flooding

February Brings Record Cold, Widespread Power Outages to Much of North America

February 7, 2023
33
Beckyq6937/Wikimedia Commons
CCS & Negative Emissions

Solar Geoengineering Banned in Mexico After ‘Rogue’ Stunt

February 7, 2023
98

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

I agree to the Terms & Conditions and Privacy Policy.

Trending Stories

Peoplepoweredbyenergy/Wikimedia Commons

Wind and Solar Cheaper than Gas Plants in Ontario and Alberta, Study Shows

February 7, 2023
211
Beckyq6937/Wikimedia Commons

Solar Geoengineering Banned in Mexico After ‘Rogue’ Stunt

February 7, 2023
98
Michael E. Brunk/flickr

Green Building ‘Heroes’, Climate Contrarian ‘Zombies’, Shell Lawsuits, and ‘Sponge Cities’ to Solve Flooding

February 7, 2023
82
Peter Broster/wikimedia commons

Ottawa Mulls Higher-Speed Trains on Busy Toronto-Quebec City Corridor

February 7, 2023
67
The hottest summer days in a typical New York City year are now about 11 times more frequent than in the 19th century. Image: Andreas Komodromos via Flickr

AI Predicts World Over 1.5°C Limit by 2030, Undercuts Climate Progress Reports

February 7, 2023
61
Brian Robert Marshall/Geograph

Canada’s Solid Renewables Growth Falls Short of Net-Zero Ambitions

February 7, 2023
60

Recent Posts

Andre Carrotflower/wikimedia commons

February Brings Record Cold, Widespread Power Outages to Much of North America

February 7, 2023
33
Nemaska Lithium/Facebook

Lithium Mine Divides Nemaska Cree Over Impacts, Benefits

February 7, 2023
20
Mike Mozart/Flickr

BP Predicts Faster Oil and Gas Decline as Clean Energy Spending Hits $1.1T in 2022

February 4, 2023
355
Gina Dittmer/PublicDomainPictures

Canada Needs Oil and Gas Emissions Cap to Hit 2030 Goal: NZAB

January 31, 2023
211
CONFENIAE

Ecuador’s Amazon Drilling Plan Shows Need for Fossil Non-Proliferation Treaty

January 31, 2023
82
Ken Teegardin www.SeniorLiving.Org/flickr

Virtual Power Plants Hit an ‘Inflection Point’

January 31, 2023
139
Next Post
Orlando Sentinel/YouTube

Coal is the Challenge as Orlando, Florida Pushes Toward 100% Carbon-Free Target

The Energy Mix - The climate news you need

Copyright 2023 © Energy Mix Productions Inc. All rights reserved.

  • About
  • Contact
  • Privacy Policy and Copyright
  • Cookie Policy

Proudly partnering with…

scf_withtagline
No Result
View All Result
  • Canada
  • UK & Europe
  • Fossil Fuels
  • Ending Emissions
  • Community Climate Finance
  • Clean Electricity Grid
  • Cities & Communities

Copyright 2022 © Smarter Shift Inc. and Energy Mix Productions Inc. All rights reserved.

Manage Cookie Consent
To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behaviour or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
Functional Always active
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
Preferences
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
Statistics
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes. The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
Marketing
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Manage options Manage services Manage vendors Read more about these purposes
View preferences
{title} {title} {title}