Canada was on track last November to miss its greenhouse gas reduction target for 2030 by at least 30%, according to a set of projections compiled in February by Environment and Climate Change Canada and published online this month.
The projections, which the department said should be “most appropriately viewed as a range of plausible outcomes,” did not include any policy or technology changes since November 1, 2016—most notably the pan-Canadian climate plan adopted December 9 by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and all but two provincial and territorial premiers.
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But climate analysts still flagged the report as a measure of the continuing vigilance required to keep Canada’s carbon reduction effort on track.
“It’s a constant reminder that our job is not done,” said Pembina Institute Director of Federal Policy Erin Flanagan. “Politicians have an unhelpful habit of announcing plans and thinking the announcement means they can transition to other priorities. We need to see constant engagement from the federal government, and from the provinces and territories.”
Dale Marshall, national program manager at Environment Defence, said Canada could miss the 2030 target if oil prices recover and the federal government keeps approving new pipeline projects. “They’ve taken steps along the way, and those steps have been generally good,” but “it remains to be seen whether the government is serious about meeting its targets,” he told the Toronto Star.