• About
    • Which Energy Mix is this?
  • Climate News Network Archive
  • Contact
The climate news that makes a difference.
No Result
View All Result
The Energy Mix
  • Canada
  • Fossil Fuels
  • Ending Emissions
  • Cities & Communities
  • Electric Mobility
  • Heat & Power
  • Community Climate Finance
SUBSCRIBE
DONATE
  • Canada
  • Fossil Fuels
  • Ending Emissions
  • Cities & Communities
  • Electric Mobility
  • Heat & Power
  • Community Climate Finance
SUBSCRIBE
DONATE
No Result
View All Result
The Energy Mix
No Result
View All Result
  • Canada
  • Fossil Fuels
  • Ending Emissions
  • Cities & Communities
  • Electric Mobility
  • Heat & Power
  • Community Climate Finance
  FEATURED
BREAKING: Don’t Attend COP 28 Unless You’re There to Help, Figueres Tells Oil and Gas September 21, 2023
Thorold Gas Peaker Plant Won’t Be Built After Unanimous City Council Vote September 20, 2023
Indoor Heat Leaves Canadians Unsafe with ‘No Escape’, CBC Investigation Finds September 20, 2023
Agrivoltaics a Win-Win for Farmers, Communities, Solar Developers, and Alberta’s UCP September 20, 2023
‘Beginning of the End’ for Oil and Gas as IEA Predicts Pre-2030 Peak September 19, 2023
Next
Prev

Surplus Canadian Pipeline Capacity Would be ‘Costly Mistake of Unprecedented Proportions’

January 16, 2017
Reading time: 2 minutes

Robin Drayton/Wikimedia Commons

Robin Drayton/Wikimedia Commons

 
Robin Drayton/Wikimedia Commons

After months of fossil industry warnings that Canada lacks the pipeline capacity it will need to get its product to market, a resource planning specialist from British Columbia is asking whether the country now faces a pipeline surplus.

“If you look closely at the numbers, the answer is yes and the implications could be costly,” Thomas Gunton, director of Simon Fraser University’s resource and environmental planning program, writes in the Globe and Mail.

  • Concise headlines. Original content. Timely news and views from a select group of opinion leaders. Special extras.
  • Everything you need, nothing you don’t.
  • The Weekender: The climate news you need.
Subscribe

With new two pipelines approved and Donald Trump expected to reopen approval of Keystone XL, Canada has space to export 7.1 million barrels of oil per day—excluding nearly 800,000 bpd in rail capacity. But “the demand side remains uncertain,” Gunton notes. “The latest forecast by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) for Western Canadian oil supply is 4.9 million bpd for 2025 and 5.5 million for 2030.” Even if all four projects behind that increase are built, even after adjusting for other uses of Canadian pipelines, the surplus capacity would stand at 2.4 million barrels per day.

(And it isn’t a foregone conclusion that projects now in the planning stages will come to fruition, after two new tar sands/oil sands developments were cancelled in December by Koch Oil Sands Operating ULC and Statoil.)

Gunton warns that CAPP’s demand predictions have since been superseded by more measured estimates from the National Energy Board (NEB) and the International Energy Agency. “Using a lower supply forecast similar to the IEA of just completing under-construction projects, Western Canadian oil supply would peak at about 4.6 million bpd. Under this scenario, surplus pipeline capacity in 2025 would be about 2.7 million bpd.”

It isn’t implausible that pipeliners would build up so much redundant capacity, he explains. “Three of the proposed projects are underpinned by shippers’ contracts signed several years ago when oil markets were much stronger. With these contracts, the new projects could be economically viable even though the capacity is not required,” as producers moved their output off existing pipelines with no similar contractual commitments.

But that doesn’t mean there isn’t a better way to plan and assess pipeline projects. “By evaluating each project separately without assessing the overall supply and demand for oil transportation, the NEB and the Canadian government may have created the conditions for a costly mistake of unprecedented proportions,” Gunton writes. “To avoid this, the government needs to evaluate all proposed projects from a social, economic, and environmental perspective to determine which mix of projects are required and best meet Canada’s public interest”—and as a first step, calculating the level of production that would be consistent with the country’s climate objectives.



in Canada, Climate & Society, Community Climate Finance, Fossil Fuels, Jurisdictions, Pipelines / Rail Transport, Tar Sands / Oil Sands

The latest climate news and analysis, direct to your inbox

Subscribe

Related Posts

UN Climate Change/flickr
COP Conferences

BREAKING: Don’t Attend COP 28 Unless You’re There to Help, Figueres Tells Oil and Gas

September 21, 2023
203
Jon Sullivan/flickr
Ontario

Thorold Gas Peaker Plant Won’t Be Built After Unanimous City Council Vote

September 21, 2023
517
Rewat Wannasuk/Pexels
Heat & Power

Virtual Power Plants Could Cut Peak Demand 20%, Save U.S. Grid $10B Per Year

September 20, 2023
66

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

I agree to the Terms & Conditions and Privacy Policy.

Trending Stories

UN Climate Change/flickr

BREAKING: Don’t Attend COP 28 Unless You’re There to Help, Figueres Tells Oil and Gas

September 21, 2023
203
Jon Sullivan/flickr

Thorold Gas Peaker Plant Won’t Be Built After Unanimous City Council Vote

September 21, 2023
517
Asurnipal/wikimedia commons

Agrivoltaics a Win-Win for Farmers, Communities, Solar Developers, and Alberta’s UCP

September 20, 2023
108
Cullen328/wikimedia commons

Manufactured Housing Could Dent the Affordable Housing Crunch with Energy-Efficient Designs

September 20, 2023
81
Mr Renewables/Wikipedia

Californians Fight for New Community Solar Plan

September 20, 2023
80
Kristoferb/Wikimedia Commons

Canadians Could Save $10.4B, Cut Climate Pollution by Replacing Central Air with Heat Pumps

August 28, 2023
669

Recent Posts

Rewat Wannasuk/Pexels

Virtual Power Plants Could Cut Peak Demand 20%, Save U.S. Grid $10B Per Year

September 20, 2023
66
Jeremy Bezanger/Unsplash

Indoor Heat Leaves Canadians Unsafe with ‘No Escape’, CBC Investigation Finds

September 20, 2023
32
Wesley Fryer/flickr

Smart Thermostats Boost Grid Stability Amid Intense Heat

September 20, 2023
31
Plug'n Drive/Wikimedia Commons

Rural Carshares Ensure EV Push Leaves No One Behind

September 20, 2023
24
/Piqusels

‘Beginning of the End’ for Oil and Gas as IEA Predicts Pre-2030 Peak

September 19, 2023
405
Clean Creatives

‘Turning Point’ for PR Industry as Clean Creatives Targets Fossil Industry Contracts

September 19, 2023
256
Next Post

Carbon cuts will not prevent sea level rise

The Energy Mix - The climate news you need

Copyright 2023 © Energy Mix Productions Inc. All rights reserved.

  • About
  • Contact
  • Privacy Policy and Copyright
  • Cookie Policy

Proudly partnering with…

scf_withtagline
The Energy Mix - Energy Central
No Result
View All Result
  • Canada
  • Fossil Fuels
  • Ending Emissions
  • Cities & Communities
  • Electric Mobility
  • Heat & Power
  • Community Climate Finance

Copyright 2022 © Smarter Shift Inc. and Energy Mix Productions Inc. All rights reserved.

Manage Cookie Consent
To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behaviour or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
Functional Always active
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
Preferences
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
Statistics
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes. The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
Marketing
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Manage options Manage services Manage vendors Read more about these purposes
View preferences
{title} {title} {title}