Canada will fall short of the greenhouse gas reduction target that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau declared a “floor,” not a “ceiling” just a week ago, according to new analysis by the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project.
And a separate study of GHG targets in other parts of the world shows that more than a dozen other countries and regions are in the same position.
The Canadian analysis by economists Dave Sawyer and Chris Bataille was the first effort to model the potential impact of carbon reduction initiatives introduced by several provinces in the lead-up to the United Nations climate conference last December, the Canadian Press reports. While those efforts will lower Canada’s emissions, the total will come in 91 megatonnes above the country’s most recent commitment to reduce 2030 emissions by at least 30% below 2005 levels, to about 599 MT.
“Even if all announced policies plus a reasonable set of aspirational policies are implemented in the short term,” the study concluded, “Canada can still expect a significant gap to both the 2020 and 2030 targets.”
On the international scene, meanwhile, an Ecofys study for the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) analyzed national commitments made by more than a dozen countries and regions, including major emitters like the United States, China, and the European Union, Reuters reports. It found that, even if they all met their targets, the result would be too little to keep warming “well below” the 2ºC limit agreed at Paris.
Ecofys concluded that use of low-carbon energy sources is growing by less than half the pace that is needed to the Paris target. “A far faster transition is needed,” said ETC Chair Adair Turner said. “To keep below 2 degrees, the share of low-carbon energy sources in the global energy supply mix needs to rise at least one percentage point a year and energy productivity needs to grow at a minimum of 3 percent a year,” Reuters notes.
