“The Paris Agreement sets a goal to limit warming to no more than 2°C, with the aim to limit warming to no more than 1.5°C,” the organization states. “However, full implementation of the current pledges, as of April 20, 2016, would result in expected warming by 2100 of 3.5°C/6.3°F. Deeper, earlier emissions cuts are needed to limit warming to no more than 2°C. The Paris Agreement provides a mechanism for the nations of the world to increase their commitments and submit stronger pledges by 2020,” and the analysis underscores the need for them to do just that.
In its current Paris commitment, the European Union promises to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. Climate Interactive concludes the EU would have to hit 47% by 2030 to be consistent with a 2.0°C, or 62% to align with a 1.5°C goal.
The United States is currently promising a 26% reduction from 2005 levels by 2025. That would have to shift to 45% in a 2°C scenario, or 60% to hit 1.5°C.
Other developed countries, now promising a collective reduction of only 2% below 2005 levels by 2030, would have to increase their ambition to 45% for a 2°C result, or to 60% for 1.5°C.
China would have to peak its emissions by 2025, rather than 2030, with energy intensity 60% below its 2005 level. Other developing countries would have to peak their emissions by 2027 to achieve a 2.0°C result, or 2025 for 1.5°C.
“If countries strengthen their current nationally determined contributions (NDCs) so global emissions peak by 2020 and then decline, the emissions cuts required to limit warming to no more than 2°C become much easier,” the analysts state.
“With each year that countries wait to strengthen their current pledges, the rate at which emissions must decline gets steeper and steeper. If countries only fulfill their current Paris pledges by 2030, our energy infrastructure, agriculture practices, and consumption habits will need to change prohibitively fast after 2030, lowering the chances of achieving the Paris agreement goal.”