Be careful what you wish for, Canada. With some polls showing broad support for more aggressive climate action, and some global leaders calling for a carbon-free economy as early as 2050, the CBC reports that head of the Canada’s housing agency is warning that if oil prices remain low while the economy decarbonizes, Canadians could see unemployment rates nearly double, and their homes lose a quarter of their value in the next five years.
Speaking to the Canadian Association of New York, the chair of the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Eric Siddall, who was appointed by the previous Conservative government, warned that if North American crude oil prices, currently around US$45 a barrel for benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, fall by another $10 and remain at or below $35 for five years, Canadian house prices may drop by as much as 26%, and its unemployment rate, currently at seven percent, could rise to 12.5%.
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Recent industry forecasts predict that WTI crude prices will remain between $40 and $50 for the rest of the decade—with some dips into the $30s. But that may change as new policies kick in to spur decarbonization.
