National greenhouse gas reduction commitments to date will not be sufficient to keep average global warming below 2ºC, the International Energy Agency warned last week in its World Energy Outlook 2015.
“If stronger action is not forthcoming after 2030, the path in the INDC [Intended National Determined Contributions] Scenario would be consistent with an average temperature increase of around 2.6°C by 2100 and 3.5°C after 2200,” the IEA stated.
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INDCs are the carbon reduction plans that national governments are filing with the UN climate secretariat ahead of final negotiations in Paris in December. In late May, Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres said governments were “actually very well on track” to a 2ºC outcome. With commitments in hand from 37 out of 196 countries, she told Reuters, “there is no doubt that this agreement will be forged in Paris.”
But the IEA’s analysis, based on INDCs submitted up to May 14, “found that in the absence of further actions, the current commitments alone will not keep the world below the two-degree threshold,” The Post reports. The IEA sees economic growth and energy use decoupling—the economy grows 88% between 2013 and 2030 in the IEA’s scenario, while energy-related emissions increase 8%.
But “the world’s estimated remaining carbon budget consistent with a 50% chance of keeping the rise in temperature below 2°C is consumed by around 2040—eight months later than is projected in the absence of INDCs,” the IEA states.
