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Shock outlook for local weather

October 8, 2013
Reading time: 38 minutes
Primary Author: Tim Radford

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Detailed new research into when global warming will start to have a serious effect on local climates has produced the shock finding that it could happen much sooner than scientists have previously predicted London, 9 October – Catastrophic climate change may begin sooner than anyone expected ­­– and the first place to feel the heat could be a small but important city in Indonesia. By 2020, oceanographers and climate scientists warn, rising air temperatures around Manokwari in West Papua could trigger a new climate regime. Dr Camilo Mora and research colleagues at the University of Hawaii report today in Nature that they looked at the question of when global warming would begin to alter local climates. And they admit that they were shocked by the results of their calculations. Weather is what happens every day – gentle rain, torrential rain, heat waves, cold snaps, and so on. Climate is the range and pattern of these turbulent events over a generation or so. For more than two decades, climate scientists have been warning that increasing greenhouse gas emissions will change climate inexorably. Increasingly – one of the most recent cases reported was in August this year – researchers have warned that, by mid-century, the world could move into a regime in which, in some continental locations, even the coolest summer days will be hotter than the hottest days experienced now.

Future warming

Such warnings are general: they define what will happen on average. But Mora and colleagues were concerned with specifics. So they used 39 climate models or computer simulations of climate change, plus climate records of observed change from 1860 to 2005, to compose a new map of future warming around the planet. They considered variables such as precipitation, evaporation, ocean surface temperature and the chemistry (the pH) of the seas.  And they made assumptions – one of which was that the world would go on burning natural gas, coal and oil, manufacturing cement, clearing forests and so on at an increasing rate. Their calculations told them that, if that was so, then air temperatures worldwide would rise to force a new climate regime – that is, the climate pattern would shift continuously beyond the most extreme records experienced in the past 150 years. And the date for this tipping point would be 2047. However, 2047 represents a mean – a date arrived at by defining the average. So some places will feel the big heat well ahead of 2047, while many others will be affected decades later. The scientists therefore went for greater detail. Which is why Manokwari, a metropolitan area of fewer than 300,000 people, and home to 24 distinct tribal groups, each with its own language and culture, looks set to make history. It will, according to the scientists’ calculations, start to experience climate change in just seven years from now. By 2020, the local climate will be consistently hotter, and the local rainfall patterns could alter.

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“The results shocked us . . . Within my generation, whatever climate we were used to will be a thing of the past.”

Dr Mora admitted: “The results shocked us. Regardless of the scenario, changes will be coming soon. Within my generation, whatever climate we were used to will be a thing of the past.” Other tropical and subtropical cities will start to share the Manokwari experience a little later. Things will become increasingly uncomfortable in Lagos by 2029, in Mexico City by 2031, and Cairo by 2036.  Moscow, which has already recorded unprecedented heat waves this century, will experience permanent change in 2063. Reykjavik will remain relatively untroubled until 2066. The finding, to an extent, upsets some expectations about the impact of global warming. For a quarter of a century, climate scientists have warned that the fastest changes will be in the Arctic, and the loss of sea ice has been dramatic. But the tropics are home to the greatest concentrations of biodiversity – the coral reefs, rain forests and savannas – and also to the greatest numbers of the poorest people.

Vulnerable to change

Tropical plants and animals are finely adapted to environmental conditions, and vulnerable to change; coral reefs and plants in particular can hardly migrate. Crop plants, too, are sensitive to extremes of heat, and so are water supplies. The implications are that at least a billion people – and possibly very many more – could find themselves increasingly short of food and water, and with ever greater strains on sanitation and health systems. Swift and determined action to stabilise emissions could delay the tipping point and give more nations time to adapt, but the bad news is that such action could now only delay the mean date to 2069 – and the developing nations in the tropics would still be first in the firing line. “Our results suggest that countries first impacted by unprecedented climates are the ones with the least capacity to respond,” said Ryan Longman, one of the co-authors of the study. “Ironically, these are countries that are least responsible for climate change in the first place.” – Climate News  Network Projected Year of Climate Departure from Historical Variability

Multi-model averages showing the projected year of climate departure from historical variability for cities around the world using two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. RCP4.5 represents a CO2 concentration of 538 ppm by 2100. RCP8.5 represents 936 ppm CO2 by  2100.

COUNTRYCITY

RCP8.5

RCP4.5

AfghanistanKabul

2045

2071

AlbaniaTirana

2046

2070

AlgeriaAlgiers

2041

2063

AndorraAndorra la Vella

2044

2070

AngolaLuanda

2035

2052

Antigua and BarbudaSt. John’s

2033

2047

ArgentinaBuenos Aires

2066

2094

ArmeniaYerevan

2045

2076

AustraliaPerth

2042

2072

AustraliaCanberra

2045

2072

AustraliaSydney

2038

2052

AustraliaMelbourne

2045

2073

AustraliaBrisbane

2042

2070

AustriaVienna

2055

2084

AzerbaijanBaku

2047

2072

BahamasNassau

2029

2041

BahrainManama

2032

2054

BangladeshDhaka

2054

2082

BarbadosBridgetown

2034

2046

BelarusMinsk

2065

2091

BelgiumBrussels

2056

2086

BelizeBelmopan

2034

2048

BeninPorto-Novo

2029

2043

BhutanThimphu

2035

2052

BoliviaLa Paz

2028

2037

Bosnia and HerzegovinaSarajevo

2051

2079

BotswanaGaborone

2050

2083

BrazilRio de Janeiro

2050

2079

BrazilSão Paulo

2051

2083

BrazilBrasília

2047

2072

BruneiBandar Seri Begawan

2027

2035

BulgariaSofia

2051

2082

Burkina FasoOuagadougou

2036

2053

BurundiBujumbura

2035

2049

CambodiaPhnom Penh

2043

2068

CameroonYaoundé

2025

2032

CanadaOttawa

2047

2072

CanadaToronto

2049

2074

CanadaMontreal

2046

2072

CanadaVancouver

2056

2083

Cape VerdePraia

2042

2066

Central African RepublicBangui

2028

2036

ChadN’Djamena

2045

2075

ChileSantiago

2043

2071

ChinaBeijing

2046

2078

ChinaShanghai

2045

2070

ChinaTianjin

2050

2080

ChinaGuangzhou

2046

2072

ChinaShenzhen

2043

2065

ChinaDongguan

2044

2071

ChinaHong Kong

2043

2065

ChinaWuhan

2045

2070

ChinaChongqing

2046

2075

ChinaShenyang

2048

2080

ColombiaBogotá

2033

2047

ComorosMoroni

2031

2048

Costa RicaSan José

2037

2058

Cote d’IvoireAbidjan

2026

2034

Cote d’IvoireAbidjan

2026

2034

CroatiaZagreb

2053

2085

CubaHavana

2031

2045

CyprusNicosia

2039

2059

Czech RepublicPrague

2056

2085

DenmarkCopenhagen

2060

2089

DjiboutiDjibouti

2034

2048

DominicaRoseau

2034

2048

Dominican RepublicSanto Domingo

2026

2033

DR CongoKinshasa

2028

2038

EcuadorQuito

2034

2050

EgyptCairo

2036

2057

EgyptAlexandria

2036

2054

El SalvadorSan Salvador

2033

2049

Equatorial GuineaMalabo

2024

2030

EritreaAsmara

2035

2053

EstoniaTallinn

2065

2091

EthiopiaAddis Ababa

2036

2054

FijiSuva

2038

2065

FinlandHelsinki

2063

2091

FranceParis

2054

2084

GabonLibreville

2024

2028

GeorgiaTbilisi

2046

2077

GermanyBerlin

2061

2090

GhanaAccra

2027

2034

GreeceAthens

2041

2064

GrenadaSt. George’s

2032

2042

GuatemalaGuatemala City

2038

2054

GuineaConakry

2027

2036

Guinea-BissauBissau

2032

2045

GuyanaGeorgetown

2029

2039

HaitiPort-au-Prince

2025

2030

HondurasTegucigalpa

2040

2055

HungaryBudapest

2056

2085

IcelandReykjavik

2066

2084

IndiaMumbai

2034

2051

IndiaDelhi

2050

2081

IndiaBangalore

2046

2069

IndiaHyderabad

2057

2085

IndiaAhmedabad

2046

2075

IndiaChennai

2034

2052

IndiaKolkata

2053

2081

IndiaSurat

2045

2066

IndiaPune

2037

2055

IndiaJaipur

2045

2074

IndiaNew Delhi

2050

2081

IndonesiaJakarta

2029

2042

IndonesiaManokwari

2020

2025

IranTehran

2045

2068

IraqBaghdad

2036

2055

IrelandDublin

2059

2083

IsraelJerusalem

2038

2061

ItalyRome

2044

2067

ItalyMilan

2048

2073

ItalyNaples

2044

2065

JamaicaKingston

2023

2028

JapanTokyo

2041

2067

JapanYokohama

2041

2067

JapanKyoto

2040

2065

JordanAmman

2040

2063

KazakhstanAstana

2058

2091

KazakhstanAlmaty

2047

2075

KenyaNairobi

2036

2058

KiribatiTarawa

2049

2074

KuwaitKuwait City

2036

2054

KyrgyzstanBishkek

2048

2077

LaosVientiane

2056

2085

LatviaRiga

2064

2091

LebanonBeirut

2040

2063

LesothoMaseru

2038

2057

LiberiaMonrovia

2025

2032

LibyaTripoli

2038

2059

LiechtensteinVaduz

2051

2076

LithuaniaVilnius

2067

2091

LuxembourgLuxembourg City

2056

2083

MacedoniaSkopje

2049

2080

MadagascarAntananarivo

2032

2047

MalawiLilongwe

2036

2053

MalaysiaKuala Lumpur

2029

2039

MaldivesMalé

2025

2027

MaliBamako

2034

2051

MaltaValletta

2038

2054

Marshall IslandsMajuro

2027

2036

MauritaniaNouakchott

2040

2069

MauritiusPort Louis

2037

2059

MexicoMexico City

2031

2050

MicronesiaPalikir

2024

2031

MoldovaChisinau

2058

2092

MonacoMonaco

2044

2066

MongoliaUlan Bator

2054

2087

MontenegroPodgorica

2048

2075

MoroccoCasablanca

2048

2080

MoroccoRabat

2046

2076

MozambiqueMaputo

2038

2060

MyanmarYangon

2036

2055

MyanmarMandalay

2045

2072

MyanmarYangon

2036

2055

MyanmarNaypyidaw

2041

2069

NamibiaWindhoek

2044

2067

NepalKathmandu

2041

2063

NetherlandsAmsterdam

2058

2086

New ZealandWellington

2041

2070

NicaraguaManagua

2037

2052

NigerNiamey

2039

2060

NigeriaLagos

2029

2043

NigeriaAbuja

2034

2047

North KoreaPyongyang

2042

2068

NorwayOslo

2061

2088

OmanMuscat

2032

2049

PakistanKarachi

2035

2055

PakistanLahore

2049

2073

PakistanIslamabad

2042

2064

PalauNgerulmud

2023

2025

PanamaPanama City

2031

2045

Papua New GuineaPort Moresby

2033

2043

ParaguayAsunción

2059

2086

PeruLima

2038

2057

PeruLima

2038

2057

PhilippinesManila

2038

2055

PolandWarsaw

2063

2090

PortugalLisbon

2052

2084

QatarDoha

2033

2052

Republic of the CongoBrazzaville

2028

2038

RomaniaBucharest

2054

2085

RussiaMoscow

2063

2092

RussiaSaint Petersburg

2064

2093

RwandaKigali

2031

2042

Saint Kitts and NevisBasseterre

2033

2047

Saint LuciaCastries

2034

2047

Saint Vincent and the   GrenadinesKingstown

2033

2046

SamoaApia

2028

2039

San MarinoSan Marino

2047

2072

Sao Tome and PrincipeSão Tomé

2025

2028

Saudi ArabiaRiyadh

2032

2050

Saudi ArabiaJeddah

2034

2050

SenegalDakar

2044

2073

SerbiaBelgrade

2054

2081

SeychellesVictoria

2027

2039

Sierra LeoneFreetown

2028

2037

SingaporeSingapore

2028

2037

SlovakiaBratislava

2055

2082

SloveniaLjubljana

2051

2075

Solomon IslandsHoniara

2024

2026

SomaliaMogadishu

2030

2040

South AfricaPretoria

2043

2068

South AfricaJohannesburg

2043

2068

South AfricaCape Town

2038

2060

South AfricaDurban

2035

2053

South AfricaBloemfontein

2043

2067

South KoreaSeoul

2042

2067

South KoreaBusan

2044

2068

South SudanJuba

2041

2056

SpainMadrid

2046

2076

SpainBarcelona

2043

2065

Sri LankaColombo

2029

2037

SudanKhartoum

2038

2062

SurinameParamaribo

2028

2040

SwazilandMbabane

2041

2067

SwedenStockholm

2060

2089

SwitzerlandBern

2050

2080

SwitzerlandZurich

2050

2077

SwitzerlandGeneva

2048

2076

SyriaDamascus

2041

2068

TaiwanTaipei

2042

2066

TajikistanDushanbe

2045

2071

TanzaniaDodoma

2040

2063

TanzaniaDar es Salaam

2034

2053

ThailandBangkok

2046

2070

The GambiaBanjul

2037

2062

Timor-LesteDili

2030

2040

TogoLomé

2031

2046

TongaNukualofa

2043

2075

Trinidad and TobagoPort of Spain

2032

2044

TunisiaTunis

2038

2060

TurkeyIstanbul

2046

2075

TurkeyAnkara

2047

2080

TurkmenistanAshgabat

2046

2072

TuvaluFunafuti

2029

2040

UgandaKampala

2047

2064

UKLondon

2056

2088

UkraineKiev

2063

2090

United Arab EmiratesAbu Dhabi

2033

2047

UruguayMontevideo

2056

2084

USAOrlando

2046

2074

USANew York City

2047

2072

USAWashington DC

2047

2071

USASan Francisco

2049

2074

USAAnchorage

2071

2095

USAHonolulu

2043

2067

USALos Angeles

2048

2079

USAChicago

2052

2081

USAHouston

2050

2081

USAPhiladelphia

2047

2072

USAPhoenix

2043

2073

USASan Diego

2046

2075

USADallas

2063

2093

USAAustin

2058

2090

USADetroit

2051

2076

USASeattle

2055

2082

USADenver

2048

2079

UzbekistanTashkent

2046

2072

VanuatuPort Vila

2038

2065

VenezuelaCaracas

2034

2052

VietnamHo Chi Minh City

2039

2062

VietnamHanoi

2055

2085

YemenSanaa

2039

2060

ZambiaLusaka

2041

2067

ZimbabweHarare

2044

2070



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